Montgomery, Ala., photographer and avid stargazer Jay Sailors aims his camera to capture images of the Leonid meteor shower on Nov. 18, 1999. Telescopes are not needed to enjoy meteor showers. (Dave Martin/AP)

It’s a meteor shower you’ve probably never heard of: the Alpha Monocerotids. Most years feature a trickle of meteors, with maybe three or four per hour visible during its annual Nov. 21 or 22 peak. But this year, meteor rates could spike 100-fold. A “short-lived outburst” is forecast for Thursday evening around 11:50 p.m. Eastern.

If this meteor shower reaches its potential, a burst of 100 or so meteors could streak across the sky in about 15 minutes, anytime between 11:30 p.m. Thursday and 12:10 a.m. Friday.

This episode will be unlike most meteor showers, which typically peak over several days. And unlike the reliable Perseids (August) or Geminids (December), the hefty meteor rates advertised with this shower aren’t a surefire deal.

The prediction of an outburst comes from NASA research scientist Peter Jenniskens and Finnish Fireball Network’s Esko Lyytinen and was published in MeteorNews. The pair specialize in sniffing out meteor outbursts and storms, expertly calculating the orbits of various celestial bodies that give rise to meteor showers. Scientists still haven’t pinned down the object depositing the debris anticipated to trigger this display.

However, outbursts in 1925, 1935, 1985 and 1995 offered enough information for the team to produce a model. It indicates the close passage of a dense pocket of spaceborne debris. That narrow but potent debris stream is likely to manifest in a 15-to-40-minute-long barrage of meteors around 11:50 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, according to the researchers.

What will it look like? Jenniskens and Lyytinen indicate events in 1985 and 1995 produced 700 and 400 meteors per hour and wrote that this event could emit anywhere from around 100 per hour to even more than 1,000 per hour, the latter considered a meteor “storm.”

The outburst is calculated to last a fraction of an hour, so those numbers can be sliced in half. And because the radiant point of the meteors will be comparatively low in the sky, we can trim off a bit more.

But assuming you’re beneath dark skies with an unobstructed view (and that the outburst materializes as predicted), you could spot five or so shooting stars per minute — still highly impressive rates.

“I recommend starting the observations at the latest at [11:30 p.m.],” Lyytinen and Jenniskens wrote, recommending folks venture outdoors even sooner, around 11:15 p.m., just to be on the safe side. “Anyone who is going to try to observe should not be late at all.”

Fortunately, the moon should cooperate, remaining concealed below the horizon until 12:55 a.m. (long after the shower has ended) keeping skies dark for optimal viewing.

To witness the possible spectacle, your best bet is to bundle up and head outside a bit before the wrap-up of the 11 o’clock news. No telescopes or equipment are required; just escape city lights, avoid looking at your phone screen, and give your eyes a few minutes to adjust.

Sky and Telescope reports the meteors will originate low in the sky in the eastern United States and Canada. “South Americans have the best seats while skywatchers in northern Africa and Western Europe will catch it in the hour or two before dawn,” it wrote.

Unfortunately, for skywatchers along the West Coast, Space.com noted the number of “visible meteors are likely to be few and far between.”

Sky conditions are likely to be favorable for viewing in the southeast United States, where mostly clear skies are expected but potentially a bit more problematic in the Northeast and Midwest because of predicted cloud cover.

Cloud cover forecast from NAM model at 10 p.m. Thursday night, just before predicted meteor shower.

Beyond an outburst, periodic “meteor storms” can grace the planet a few times a century. The last prolific one, which lasted about 90 minutes, occurred during the Leonid meteor shower on the morning of Nov. 17, 1966. While day was dawning on the East Coast, 40 or more meteors per second were streaking down from the heavens in the West. An even more impressive episode occurred in 1833. Unfortunately, no such storms are anticipated in our lifetimes.

[Leonid shower a dud in 2019, but past years have featured extreme ‘meteor storms’]

The next outburst from the Alpha Monocerotids shower is predicted in 2043.

Jason Samenow contributed to this article.