Dow Jones futures were little changed early Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally hit record highs Thursday on China trade deal news, then pared gains on trade deal doubts. Dexcom (DXCM), Sleep Number (SNBR), Alibaba (BABA), NMI Holdings (NMIH) and Costco Wholesale (COST) still moved into a buy zone. After the close, Walt Disney (DIS) soared late on strong earnings and upbeat Disney+ comments.

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Disney stock gapped higher overnight, making a big move toward a buy point.

Earlier, Dexcom stock, Sleep Number stock, Alibaba stock and NMI Holdings stock all cleared buy points on strong volume, while Costco stock broke out on the strongest volume, on an up day, that it's seen in a month. Dexcom stock, Sleep Number stock and mortgage insurer NMI Holdings broke out on earnings, while Costco stock rallied on October sales. Alibaba stock rallied as several Chinese e-commerce firms power higher ahead of the massive 11.11 online shopping day.

Individual names such as Disney or Alibaba can buck the market on any given day. But as long as the China trade war is underway, investors need to understand this mantra: Don't fight China trade news. If trade headlines are positive, expect a stock market rally. On the flip side, negative China trade news will fuel pullbacks or full-blown stock market corrections.

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Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% vs. fair value, with Dow Jones component Disney stock giving a lift. S&P 500 futures fell slightly while Nasdaq 100 futures sank 0.1%. Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

On Friday, Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg that a mutual tariff rollback would be part of a "phase one" China trade deal. But Peter Navarro, Trump's hawkish trade adviser, told Fox Business that no such decision has been made.

Current Stock Market Rally

The current stock market rally hit record highs Thursday morning after Beijing announced a possible China trade deal breakthrough. Both sides had agreed, in principle, to roll back existing tariffs in stages. But, noticeably, there was no triumphant tweet from President Donald Trump or any official confirmation. In late afternoon, Reuters reported serious internal White House opposition to a China tariff rollback.

The major indexes pared gains noticeably, but never turned negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.7% while the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite each rose 0.3%.

Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) climbed 0.3%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) advanced 0.2%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rallied 0.6%.

Don't Fight China Trade News

There's an old rule of thumb, "don't fight the Fed." But over the past two years, the new stock market manta has been: "Don't fight China trade."

While Thursday's intraday moves were relatively modest, they underscore how China trade news fuels stock market rallies and pullbacks.

Disney Earnings

Disney earnings per share fell 28% to $1.07, while revenue popped 33.5% to $19.1 billion. Analysts expected Disney earnings of 95 cents a share on revenue of $19.03 billion. Meanwhile, Disney CEO Bob Iger wouldn't give preorder figures for Disney+, which launches Nov. 12. But Iger was "enthusiastic" about early Disney+ demand.

Disney also said Disney+ will be on Amazon Fire TV as well as Samsung and LG smart TVs.

Disney stock leapt 6.2% early Friday, moving toward a 147.25 flat-base buy point. Shares climbed 1.3% to 132.96 in Thurday's stock market trading, retaking the 50-day line.

Alibaba Hong Kong Listing

Alibaba reportedly plans a $15 billion listing on the Hong Kong market in the final week of November. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is in rally mode. Meanwhile, Alibaba is spending $3.3 billion to up the stake it its Cainiao logistics unit to 63% from 51%.

Alibaba stock rose 0.8% Friday morning.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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