After months of talking about it, making predictions and arguing about how the field would shape up, we are officially in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. The CFP Selection Committee unveiled its latest rankings on Tuesday night. It's fun to debate who's overrated and underrated, but ultimately, there are still plenty of teams with a path to the playoff.
In all, there are a baker's dozen who, in some capacity, have a shot. I'm setting the cutoff line at No. 13 Baylor. Wisconsin, at No. 14, got housed by Ohio State 38-7. No. 15 Michigan, in turn, got handled by the Badgers 35-14. On and on it goes, but basically, you can't get waxed on the scoreboard and be in the discussion. There also aren't Group of Five teams making semi-serious runs, either.
The contenders are grouped into three categories: long shots, contenders and favorites. The tiers are meant to combine like teams, but they are also ordered by their respective chances of making the four-team playoff field. Again, this is not a ranking of which teams are better than others, nor is it a reflection of who I personally feel should get in.
Additionally, there are dozens of scenarios that could play out over the next 3-4 weeks. It would be a mind-bender to play through all of them, so for simplicity's sake, we're going to proceed with some level of chalk. Know they're going to change and the list is going to get cut in half by the end of the year -- perhaps far sooner than that. Let's get to it.
Long shots
These are the teams with minimal chances of making the playoff -- at best. No team ranked outside the top 10 in Week 12 has made the cut yet since the CFP's inception. The lowest-ranked team to do was No. 9 Michigan State in 2015.
No. 11 Florida (8-2): Only Lloyd Christmas likes Florida's odds, but they are technically non-zero. The Gators, which have two "good" losses to teams currently in the top four, need to beat Missouri this weekend and have Georgia lose its final two SEC games in order to take the SEC East and earn an opportunity at either LSU or Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. In other words, Florida needs to win out -- and it needs help by means of an extra game. Remaining schedule: at Missouri, vs. Florida State
No. 13 Baylor (9-0): The committee doesn't seem sold on the Bears seeing as they're the lowest-ranked unbeaten, behind a two-loss team in the Gators, but there's room to make an impression quickly. Baylor gets Oklahoma and Texas in consecutive weeks, and if it gets through that, it'll probably play the Sooners again in the Big 12 Championship Game. I wouldn't pick 'em to run the table, but the door is indeed cracked open. Remaining schedule: vs. No. 10 Oklahoma, vs. No. 19 Texas, at Kansas
Contenders
You'll find most of the teams in the playoff hunt here. They can make a run, but they're not necessarily favorites, either.
No. 12 Auburn (7-2): The Tigers are Team Chaos and have the most upside. Though they have two losses, neither are bad. In fact, they played No. 1 LSU tougher than anyone. They can skyrocket up the rankings if they win out since the schedule includes Alabama and Georgia (possibly twice). They would also have -- and this is key -- a head-to-head win over Oregon. Remaining schedule: vs. No. 4 Georgia, vs. Samford, vs. No. 5 Alabama
No. 9 Penn State (8-1): It depends largely on whether the Nittany Lions can beat Ohio State. Winning in Columbus, Ohio, will be a tall order, but it would do wonders for getting them back in the thick of the playoff hunt. Penn State would also like another crack at No. 8 Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship Game for a couple of reasons: revenge and the added weight of recency. Remaining schedule: vs. Indiana, at No. 2 Ohio State, vs. Rutgers
No. 7 Utah (8-1): Part of why Utah was a trendy playoff darkhorse was because the schedule set up nicely to run the table. The flip side of that is it doesn't leave a lot of margin for error. There aren't any great wins on the resume, and Washington has been a disappointment. Beating Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game would be huge, but would it be enough? Remaining schedule: vs. UCLA, at Arizona, vs. Colorado
No. 8 Minnesota (9-0): Great, if the Gophers can keep winning, but I hate their November. Minny is already a road dog at Iowa, and we know how it is playing at Kinnick Stadium as an unbeaten team. Playing at Northwestern is somehow both a hangover and look-ahead game. And getting repeatedly hit with a sledgehammer in freezing temperatures by Wisconsin to top it off isn't exactly fun. If you get past all of that, congrats, you probably get Ohio State on a fast track in Indianapolis. Remaining schedule: at No. 20 Iowa, at Northwestern, vs. No. 14 Wisconsin
No. 10 Oklahoma (8-1): Oklahoma's remaining slate isn't as tricky as Minnesota's since it'll be navigating through it as clear favorites, but it's not a gimme. The Sooners have been vulnerable in their past two games, and upcoming road trips against ranked opponents -- Beldam among them -- are worth monitoring. A Big 12 Championship Game appearance would mean the Sooners then face one of the conference's top two teams again. Running the table would likely bump them up four, maybe five spots. They might need a bit of help to get any higher, though. Remaining schedule: at No. 13 Baylor, vs. TCU, at No. 22 Oklahoma State
No. 5 Alabama (8-1): I don't think you're going to see a lot of movement from Alabama over the next couple of weeks. People have gone full Galaxy Brain trying to rationalize this team's playoff hopes, but the reality is it doesn't have a great win and might have one at most by season's end -- and that would be an Auburn team suffering its third loss. As it stands, the Tide are behind LSU in the SEC West race and would need it to lose two games (while also winning out) to make it to Atlanta. Bama may still get in, it's just not a sure thing. Remaining schedule: at Mississippi State, vs. Western Carolina, at No. 12 Auburn
No. 6 Oregon (8-1): Even though Oregon is ranked behind Alabama, the committee did something interesting. They put the Ducks right behind the Crimson Tide. One could infer that, if chalk holds, Oregon's extra game could be enough to leapfrog Alabama. How the committee weighs each team's performance against Auburn may be a deciding factor as well. Remaining schedule: vs. Arizona, at Arizona State, vs. Oregon State
Favorites
Win (out) and they're in.
No. 4 Georgia (8-1): The Bulldogs are a borderline team for me. I love the defense, and the wins over Florida and Notre Dame stand out. If they beat Auburn on Saturday and LSU or Alabama in Atlanta, they're in without question. However, that's a tough road, and goodness gracious, God almighty that South Carolina loss is hot, summertime trash. Remaining schedule: at No. 12 Auburn, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Georgia Tech
No. 3 Clemson (10-0): Excellent, but there's no room for an L. Honestly, we've put too much emphasis on Trevor Lawrence's interceptions and not nearly enough on the fact Clemson's been whooping some ass every week since October. The schedule's not great, so I don't see it losing between now and Selection Sunday, but it would be fascinating to see how the Tigers will be viewed if they did. Remaining schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at South Carolina
No. 2 Ohio State (9-0): The Buckeyes have an underappreciated remaining schedule that, if passed, would assure them a playoff spot. While it's a harder road than that of Clemson, Ohio State has been the most dominant and complete team since Week 1. LSU deserves to be No. 1, but Ohio State may still be the best overall team. Remaining schedule: at Rutgers, vs. No. 9 Penn State, at No. 15 Michigan
No. 1 LSU (9-0): The three aforementioned favorites are in the playoff if they win. But LSU feels like the only team, as of today, that can sustain a loss and still love its odds of getting in the four-team field. Another team may join later, but right now the Tigers alone enjoy that privilege. They have the most impressive collection of wins out of any of these teams. Remaining schedule: at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M