The Browns will try to end a tough stretch against their AFC North rivals when Cleveland hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers have won 11 of the last 13 meetings between the teams, but the Browns have plenty of talent on offense and the home team is 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five meetings. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has shown flashes of the player Cleveland fans expected him to be and has elite targets in Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham and the league's third-leading rusher, Nick Chubb. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from FirstEnergy Stadium. Cleveland is a field goal favorite in the latest Steelers vs. Browns odds, up a half-point from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before you commit to any Browns vs. Steelers picks, you need to see the Thursday Night Football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 29-18 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 91-61 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
Last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has broken down Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football. We can tell you it's leaning under, but it also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Mayfield has thrown for 2,201 yards and nine touchdowns, but also has 11 interceptions. Cleveland turned to the running game against the Bills last week and Chubb battled for 116 yards on 20 carries. He has 919 yards and eight touchdowns this season, averaging 5.3 per carry. Landry (45-652-2) and Beckham (44-632-1) have been splitting the receiving duties. Both are averaging more than 14 yards per catch, but have struggled to find the end zone.
The Browns are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight division games and the defense has 26 sacks this season. Defensive end Myles Garrett has 10 of those and is tied for third in the league, while tackle Larry Ogunjobi has four. Safeties Morgan Burnett (36 tackles and two sacks) and Damarious Randall (27 , two) are big hitters. Linebackers Joe Schobert, who has a team-high 82 tackles, a sack and a fumble recovery, and Mack Wilson (40 tackles) are intimidating presences in the middle.
But just because Cleveland has the weapons on offense doesn't mean it will cover the Browns vs. Steelers spread on Thursday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games after allowing fewer than 15 points in the previous game, and its defense is starting to look like a vintage Steelers unit. The Steelers forced four turnovers and scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery while holding the Rams to 12 points on Sunday. They raised some eyebrows by trading a 2020 first-round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the safety is making a major impact with five interceptions, eight passes defended and two scores, including the 40-yard fumble return Sunday.
Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,330 yards and 11 touchdowns in seven contests and can count on top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to deliver big plays. Smith-Schuster has 36 catches for 503 yards and three touchdowns, while rookie Diontae Johnson has stepped up to catch 30 passes for 363 yards and three scores.
So who wins Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Steelers vs. Browns spread you should be all over on Thursday night, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.