The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, and you can already hear the audible jeers coming out of the other Death Valley.
The selection committee's decision to put defending national champion Clemson outside of the Top 4 on Tuesday night summoned a shockwave nationally, strengthening Dabo Swinney's claim his unbeaten team isn't getting enough respect by winning.
According to Clemson247, Swinney addressed strength of schedule head on Tuesday when he said, "Who has beat Alabama in SEC? In the past five years? Ain't many. Yet we've had a great run in our conference because nobody is else good. We’ve only won in postseason because people are tired or there are distractions ... it’s funny.”
Playoff chair Rob Mullens said Tuesday "some of it" has to do with Clemson's 1-point win at North Carolina when compared to the outcomes for the other unbeatens ahead of the Tigers this season, who all have wins over current teams ranked inside the Top 25 except Alabama.
The selection committee was clear with their initial reveal that who you've beaten matters and overall stellar play on both sides of the football, which relates to eye test, is hard to overlook.
Here are 10 takeaways from the selection committee's first rankings:
Coming in at Nos. 7 and 8 respectively, one-loss contenders Oregon and Utah need help from teams in front of them to get in the final four, but it could happen over the remainder of the season and here's how — four unbeatens play each other this month (LSU-Alabama, Penn State-Ohio State) and Georgia, at No. 6, has to beat at least two more Top 25 teams to get to the final four in the SEC. That leaves the Ducks or Utes, by winning out, in a great spot to be in the conversation ahead of the final rankings at 12-1 depending on which teams wins the Pac-12 title.
Penn State plays a close game against Pitt and it's fine, yet Clemson plays a close game against UNC and WELL THAT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE AT ALL YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE ACC*
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) November 6, 2019
*Unless you play in the Big Ten and have a marquee win against ... checks notes ... Iowa.
Kudos to the selection committee for looking at Clemson independently of last season's success this fall. The Tigers ride the nation's longest winning streak at 24 games into Saturday's tilt at North Carolina State, but voters appear to have separated that from what we've seen thus far — a team hitting its stride down the stretch vs. impressing throughout with a lackluster body of work. That's not necessarily Clemson's fault thanks to a weak schedule, but at No. 5, Dabo Swinney's defending national champions have no room for error down the stretch. Even a loss to nationally-ranked Wake Forest in a couple weeks would likely detonate final four hopes.
Doesn’t matter where they put #OhioState #PennState or #Minnesota tonight - there is no way on earth an unbeaten Big Ten champ gets left out. So all three control their destiny.
— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) November 5, 2019
How bad does it look right now for the 17th-ranked Golden Gophers? Six two-loss teams are ahead of unbeaten Minnesota in the first poll, including Kansas State, Notre Dame and Michigan. P.J. Fleck's team has benefited from a favorable slate by Big Ten standards up to this point and doesn't have a win over a ranked team that moves the needle. That could change on Saturday vs. Penn State, but it's obvious — and to Mike Greenberg's point — Minnesota will have to win out to get to the final four. That would mean there's likely four ranked wins (Nittany Lions, Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State) when it's all said and done. The Gophers' meat of the schedule begins this weekend.
Penn State at No. 4? We're sure James Franklin digs. Victories over nationally-ranked Iowa and Michigan mean something, as do LSU's marquee wins over Florida, Auburn and then-ranked Texas back on the road in September. The other Top 3 team is Ohio State, who owns dominant decisions over Cincinnati and Wisconsin. That's six wins over Top 25 teams combined for the headliners on Tuesday night and none for Alabama or Clemson. So why are the Crimson Tide ranked one notch above the Nittany Lions? More on that a little later as we try and explain the love for Nick Saban's squad.
— Emmanuel Acho (@thEMANacho) November 6, 2019Georgia lost to South Carolina AT HOME!!! Oregon lost to Auburn in August!!
I love the dawgs, they have quality wins, but Georgia should NOT be ranked above Oregon. #CFBPlayoff
One of the primary questions heading into the initial reveal was Georgia's placement and where the Bulldogs would be ranked despite one of the nation's worst losses for a contender this season. As Playoff chair Rob Mullens stated in the aftermath, the setback vs. South Carolina was bad, but the committee considered wins over Notre Dame and Florida as games that "canceled" that defeat out. The Bulldogs are in great position at No. 6, ahead of two one-loss Pac-12 teams, to move up in the rankings down the stretch.
— FBSchedules.com (@FBSchedules) November 6, 2019Sagarin Strength of Schedule of the College Football Playoff Top 13:
1. Ohio State (20)
2. LSU (34)
3. Alabama (59)
4. Penn State (39)
5. Clemson (64)
6. Georgia (50)
7. Oregon (24)
8. Utah (40)
9. Oklahoma (49)
10. Florida (8)
11. Auburn (3)
12. Baylor (65)
13. Wisconsin (44)
Strength of record, game control, strength of schedule ... all those metrics come into play when slotting who the four best teams are after 10 weeks of the regular season. There's an obvious outlier here with Alabama's strength of schedule of 59th nationally, but the Crimson Tide haven't played a close game yet against any team and have been nearly unstoppable offensively. Unbeaten Baylor, at No. 12, is being adversely affected by its schedule strength (No. 65) right now and the Bears have won three games by a field goal or less (two against 3-5 teams). But with Oklahoma and Texas coming up over consecutive weekends this month, the Bears will have a chance to impress.
The selection committee steers clear of "eye test" when they can and you won't find the phrase anywhere on the CFB Playoff's web site, but here's the thing — it exists every year and for the only team that has reached the final four every season since inception, Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt. The Crimson Tide don't have a quality win thus far, but that changes on Saturday if they can topple LSU. But as Kirk Herbstreit said on Tuesday night, there's not a path for Alabama to get to the final four as an at-large with a loss.
Perhaps the most surprising takeaway from the committee's first reveal? The one-loss Sooners barely made it inside the Top 10. Surrendering 48 points on the road in a loss to Kansas State appears to be the kind of thing that capsizes a season and Oklahoma may not have enough left on the slate to be in the conversation in December. Given their current spot, by winning out, the Sooners would need Clemson to lose, chaos in the Big 10 and likely an Oregon fall to get there. Is that possible? Oklahoma's body of work at 12-1 will look much better in a few weeks with projected wins over unbeaten Baylor, nationally-ranked Oklahoma State and then another victory over a Top 25 team in the conference championship game. Remember — Power 5 league titles is part of the protocol when teams are comparable.
We'll never known if there was a unanimous No. 1 from the committee on Ohio State over the Buckeyes in the first rankings, but from Mullens' explanation, it does sound like both teams are held in extremely high regard by the 13 members.
"Two outstanding teams," Mullens said during the reveal show. "We obviously recognized LSU's marquee wins against Florida and Auburn. Two outstanding offenses with Joe Burrow and the new offensive coordinator at LSU, but when you watch Ohio State, they have performed at a very consistent level. Really good on both sides of the ball, explosive offensive playmakers and Chase Young probably as disruptive a defensive player as there is in the country. And when you look at their resume, they perform at a consistently high level, every week."