The eyes of the boxing world descend upon Las Vegas this weekend with a huge light heavyweight showdown on tap from the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez will move up 15 pounds to challenge light heavyweight champ Sergey Kovalev in a fight brimming with intrigue.
Many thought Alvarez would take on old foe Gennady Golovkin in a trilogy bout this weekend, including the promoters and streaming service paying Alvarez a massive 10-fight, $365 million contract, DAZN. But instead, Alvarez blew off his typical date on Mexican Independence Day in September to wait out the results of Kovalev and Yarde to set up the incredible challenge that awaits him on Saturday night in Sin City.
Canelo has only ever moved as high as super middleweight when he took out an overmatched Rocky Fielding last December with a first-round TKO. This, however, presents its own unique challenges as Kovalev (34-3-1) may be at the tale end of his career but still carries enough power to score a knockout against a smaller opponent.
Plus, top lightweight prospect Ryan Garcia is back in action when he takes on Romero Duno in the co-main event.
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Let's take a look at the fight card and latest odds from MGM for this fight.
| Favorite | Underdog | Weightclass |
|---|---|---|
Canelo Alvarez -450 | Sergey Kovalev (c) +350 | WBO Light heavyweight title |
Ryan Garcia -550 | Romero Duno +330 | Lightweight |
Let's take a closer look at the card and see who our experts are taking to win on Saturday night. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Jack Crosby (editor) and Brandon Wise (editor).
Picks, Predictions
| Experts | Canelo vs. Kovalev |
|---|---|
Campbell | Canelo, TKO9 |
Brookhouse | Canelo, UD |
Crosby | Canelo, UD |
Wise | Kovalev TKO7 |
Campbell: Alvarez enters a much more difficult fight than oddsmakers or many experts seem willing to acknowledge. Despite his age, the 36-year-old Kovalev remains an intelligent boxer with a stiff jab and finishing ability with both hands. The fact that he's anything but a slow, aging slugger should mean Alvarez will need to pick his spots in the first half of the fight and respect the danger he's facing. Inevitably, however, Alvarez is just too quick, smart and great to let this opportunity slip away. Look for a focused body attack to slow Kovalev down late and force a stoppage.
Brookhouse: I think this will be a close fight, in large part because Canelo will have to be cautious at times and I could see him surviving a few moments of being hurt by the much larger Kovalev. That said, Canelo's speed will be the deciding factor here against a declining, slower Kovalev. Canelo is also going to crack Kovalev with some huge uppercuts throughout. I just think the size difference is too much for him to score a stoppage. Close fight, live underdog, but Canelo makes history.
Crosby: Kovalev will be sitting comfortably in a familiar weight class while Canelo is the one making the slightly risky leap, and while a lot is being made — rightfully so — about the power the light heavyweight champion brings to the table, Canelo is simply the smarter fighter. I can't see Canelo flooring Kovalev in this one, but I can see him clearly out-pointing a tiring champion in the later rounds to make history.
Wise: I flatly think Canelo is miscalculating this challenge. He's never been truly bullied in a fight like this, especially with Daniel Jacobs in May where Jacobs did not use his size to his advantage as much as possible. I think Kovalev pushes the pace early and takes Canelo into the ropes with his jab to set up the power in his right hand. Kovalev will make Canelo feel the disadvantage in size and send him back down to the middleweight division.
So who wins Canelo vs. Kovalev? How many rounds does it last? And what best bet should you make for a 7-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see Peter Kahn's best bets, all from the fight game insider who called the draw at 20-1 in the first GGG-Canelo fight.