I was 13-2 straight up with my picks last week. That, I will take.

It's the 7-8 record against the spread that I don't like.

It's about time that turns around. There have been so many bad picks lately, like me thinking the Carolina Panthers would beat the San Francisco 49ers last week. That was over at halftime.

But there are a few games this week where I think the underdog has a chance to win. It's Halloween week, which means things are beginning to crystallize in the league.

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That means it's easier to pick games. At least that's the way I see it that way. The early part of the season is tough to gauge.

Now it gets easier.

Let's hope the record follows that same thinking.

49ers (-10) at Cardinals 

The 49ers are rolling behind the run game and that dominant defensive front. This is a short week, but those things travel on a short week. Look for the 49ers front to get all over Kyler Murray. 49ers big. 

Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 13

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Texans at Jaguars (+2)

This should be an offensive shootout between Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew. The Texans have major issues on defense, so I expect Minshew to get the best of this high-scoring game. It will be fun. 

Pick: Jaguars 34, Texans 30

Redskins at Bills (-9.5)

The Redskins have been awful this season and that will continue here. The Buffalo defense struggled last week, but it will bounce back here in a big way. They will limit the Redskins offense and Josh Allen will make enough plays to pull this out. 

Pick: Bills 26, Redskins 10

Titans at Panthers (-3.5)

The Panthers return home after an awful showing last week against the 49ers. Kyle Allen remains in as the starter, and he will bounce back here. The Titans are 2-0 with Ryan Tannehill, but he will suffer his first loss as the starter here. 

Pick: Panthers 28, Titans 20

Vikings (-1) at Chiefs

The Chiefs have lost three straight at home and will almost certainly be without Patrick Mahomes here. That means Matt Moore again. He was solid last week against the Packers, but Minnesota will put up a stiffer defensive challenge. The Vikings will win a tough road game. 

Pick: Vikings 27, Chiefs 23

Jets (-3) at Dolphins

This is the dud game of the week. But somebody has to win. Is it the Jets who are clearly in look-ahead mode or the Dolphins, who have tanked all season? The Dolphins are playing hard, but they are undermanned. I think the Jets go into Miami and let Adam Gase beat his former team. Barely. 

Pick: Jets 19, Dolphins 14

Bears at Eagles (-4.5)

The Bears have been lifeless on offense, which is never a good thing. Philadelphia's defense hasn't been great, so something has to give here. I think the Eagles defense will get the best of it. The Eagles get a second straight victory. 

Pick: Eagles 21, Bears 13

Colts at Steelers (+1)

The Steelers are playing on a short week, but this is the game that could decide their season. I think the defense has made strides the past few games and that will continue here. They limit the Colts offense. 

Pick: Steelers 24, Colts 17

Lions at Raiders (-2)

The Raiders are home for the first time in a long time, while the Lions are out on the road for the first time in three weeks. The Raiders did some good things last week against the Texans, especially on offense. I think that carries over here. 

Pick: Raiders 28, Lions 17

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-6)

This is a long road trip for the Bucs who played on the road last week. Seattle is home after a road victory last week, but the defense has struggled some. That changes here. They turn Jameis Winston over and win this game easily. 

Pick: Seahawks 31, Bucs 20

Browns (-3.5) at Broncos

Point spread: Broncos +3.5

The Browns have looked awful this season, but they face Brandon Allen at quarterback here. That's a big advantage. It's time for Baker Mayfield and the offense to get it cranked up. They will. Browns win a road game. 

Pick: Browns 27, Broncos 21

Packers (-3) at Chargers

The Packers are playing consecutive road games, but this one will feel like a home game. Their fans will invade the Chargers stadium. The Packers have been rolling on offense and that will continue here. Even with a change at offensive coordinator, the Chargers won't keep up. 

Pick: Packers 28, Chargers 20

Patriots (-3.5) at Ravens 

This is the game of the week. The Patriots are playing outstanding football on defense, which will make for a tough go for Lamar Jackson. I expect the Pats to limit his running and keep him in the pocket to beat them. He won't. Pats keep rolling. 

Pick: Patriots 22, Ravens 17

Cowboys (-7) at Giants 

The Cowboys are coming off a bye, but they need to be careful here since they lost to the Jets in this same building a few weeks ago. The Giants have shown some life on offense with Daniel Jones, but I think the Cowboys defense will be ready here. The Cowboys win it. 

Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 16