HOUSTON -- Thanks to three authoritative wins at Nationals Park, the Houston Astros will go into Game 6 on Tuesday night with a chance to clinch their second World Series title in the last three years (GameTracker). And to do that, they'll likely need ace Justin Verlander to do something he's never done before: win a World Series game.
"Those are the moments that you dream about," Verlander said Sunday. "... It's just having the opportunity to be out there and be on the mound hopefully in a scenario where we can close it out, that's everything I've dreamed of."
Verlander takes an 0-5 record and a 5.73 ERA in six World Series starts into Game 6. His teams are 1-5 in his World Series starts, with the one win coming in Game 2 of the 2017 Fall Classic, when he had the bare minimum quality start (three earned runs in six innings) and the Astros won the game in 11 innings. Verlander has left all six World Series starts with his team trailing.
| Game | Result | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006 Game 1 | STL 7, DET 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
2006 Game 5 | STL 4, DET 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
2012 Game 1 | SF 8, DET 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
2017 Game 2 | HOU 7, LAD 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
2017 Game 6 | LAD 3, HOU 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 0 |
2019 Game 2 | WAS 12, HOU 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| TOTAL | TEAM RECORD: 1-5 | 33 | 30 | 24 | 21 | 11 | 36 | 7 |
Verlander has allowed one home run roughly every 4 2/3 innings in the World Series compared to one every 9 2/3 innings during the regular season and one every nine innings in the ALDS and ALCS. Part of that is facing better offenses, sure, but it is still an alarming home run spike. His homer rate basically doubles from the regular season to the World Series.
After posting a combined 3.24 win probability added in 149 2/3 combined ALDS and ALCS innings, Verlander owns a minus-0.77 win probability in 33 World Series innings. He has been responsible for close to one full loss in his six World Series starts all by himself. Among pitchers with at least six career World Series starts, that is easily the lowest win probability in history:
- Justin Verlander: -0.77 in six starts
- Gary Nolan: -0.47 in seven starts
- Don Sutton: -0.39 in eight starts
- Dave Stewart: -0.32 in eight starts
- Burt Hooton: -0.29 in six starts
Of course, there's no reason Verlander can't win a World Series game. He just hasn't to date. Postseason stats are descriptive, not predictive. They tell you what happened. They're not good indicators of what will happen next. Example: David Price. He was viewed as a postseason choker until he wasn't. Verlander's previous World Series starts won't affect his performance in Game 6.
What will affect Verlander's performance in Game 6 is the Nationals, a team he will be facing for the second time in a week. In Game 2 he allowed two runs in six innings before giving up the go-ahead solo home run to Kurt Suzuki in the top of the seventh. He walked the next batter, who later came around to score, to end his outing. The Nationals will see him for a second time in Game 6.
"It becomes more difficult," he said. "I think there's adjustments both ways, but I think those opposing guys once they've seen you three, four at-bats, it's a little bit easier for them to make adjustments, and having seen your off-speed stuff and tracked it. You just need to execute a little bit better."
Starting pitchers have more control over the game than any single player, but they can not win a game by themselves. They still need the catcher to catch, the fielders the field, and the offense to put up runs. Verlander's weak World Series track record is more obscure fact than an indication he can't win deep into October. Either way, that's a narrative he wants to end in Game 6.