Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 9 (2019 Fantasy Football)

Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 9 (2019 Fantasy Football)

2019-10-29 15:07:58

We have been witnessing history these past several weeks. Here are some facts about the Patriots’ defense: They have scored more fantasy points (181) than the second (SF with 102) and third (CAR with 73) best defenses combined. Among all players, ...

The Panthers are quietly one of the best defenses in Fantasy.

We have been witnessing history these past several weeks. Here are some facts about the Patriots’ defense:

  1. They have scored more fantasy points (181) than the second (SF with 102) and third (CAR with 73) best defenses combined.
  2. Among all players, they rank third in fantasy points, behind only Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. For comparison, San Francisco’s defense ranks 37th, and last year’s best defense, Chicago, ranked 42nd.
  3. The patriots have scored more fantasy points – in eight games – than 2018’s second-best defense did in 16, and it’s not particularly close (LAR with 147).
  4. They have scored more points on defense – with four TDs and a safety – than the four TDs they’ve allowed. Their defense is literally better at scoring than they offenses they’ve faced.
  5. With six combined defensive and special teams TDs, they’ve already tied the 2018 league lead.

If you didn’t already have enough reason to watch Patriots games, watch for their defense. There is a strong change they finish with the best season ever by a team defense.

We have four teams out this week, but next week will be the worst bye week of the year, with 6 teams gone. Good options will be hard to come by win Week 10, so it’s as important as ever to plan ahead. If you can afford the bench spot, here are my top five stashes for week 10:

  1. NYJ (vs NYG), 6% owned. They play Miami this week so I expect their ownership to skyrocket, but if you get them this week, the’ll be good next week too.
  2. TB (vs ARI), 5% owned. They won’t get used this week vs SF, but Kyler Murray is a great target for Tampa Bay’s excellent pass rush.
  3. IND (vs MIA), 50% owned. I would start almost anyone against Miami, and Indianapolis certainly fits the bill for “almost anyone.”
  4. CLE (vs BUF), 44% owned. The Browns should be fine at home against a mediocre quarterback in Josh Allen.
  5. BUF (@ CLE), 52% owned. The Bills are likely to end up owned in most leagues since they play Washington this week, but at 52% ownership before waivers, that could be you, and you’ll be able to use them Week 10 against one of the more turnover-prone offenses in the league.

Ranks

With four teams on bye, options are kind of slim, but not desperately so. Feel free to hit me up with questions on Twitter. Ownership numbers reflect Yahoo on Tuesday morning.

Rank Team Vs. O/U Spread PA Sack Turnovers TD FPTS Own%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 BUF WAS 36.5 -9.5 13.5 2.3 1.3 0.13 8.22 52%
2 DAL @NYG 48 -7.5 20.25 3.5 1.4 0.15 7.85 56%
3 CAR TEN 40 -3.5 18.25 3.0 1.3 0.13 7.50 15%
4 SF @ARI 48 -9.5 19.25 3.1 1.3 0.13 7.41 25%
5 NYJ @MIA 41 -4.5 18.25 2.4 1.5 0.15 7.32 6%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
6 DEN CLE 42.5 -1.5 20.5 2.6 1.5 0.16 7.19 44%
7 SEA TB 51 -7 22 2.6 1.5 0.15 6.78 61%
8 CLE @DEN 42.5 1.5 22 2.6 1.4 0.15 6.74 44%
9 NE @BAL 45 -4.5 20.25 2.9 1.3 0.14 6.54 98%
The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier
10 TEN @CAR 40 3.5 21.75 3.3 1.1 0.11 6.48 24%
11 WAS @BUF 36.5 9.5 23 2.8 1.4 0.14 6.48 3%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
12 PHI CHI 44.5 -5 19.75 2.5 1.2 0.12 6.44 37%
13 MIA NYJ 41 4.5 22.75 2.8 1.3 0.14 6.40 0%
14 GB @LAC 45.5 -3 21.25 2.3 1.3 0.14 6.22 66%
15 OAK DET 50.5 -2.5 24 2.7 1.3 0.14 6.11 1%
16 JAC HOU 47.5 2.5 25 2.9 1.2 0.12 5.84 86%
17 PIT IND 43.5 1 22.25 2.9 1.0 0.10 5.81 47%
18 LAC GB 45.5 3 24.25 2.9 1.1 0.12 5.78 97%
19 MIN @KC 48 -2.5 22.75 2.2 1.3 0.13 5.68 97%
20 CHI @PHI 44.5 5 24.75 2.7 1.2 0.12 5.63 100%
21 HOU @JAC 47.5 -2.5 22.5 2.7 0.9 0.10 5.44 63%
22 KC MIN 48 2.5 25.25 2.3 1.3 0.13 5.30 27%
23 IND @PIT 43.5 -1 21.25 1.6 1.2 0.13 5.24 50%
24 BAL NE 45 4.5 24.75 2.0 1.1 0.12 4.90 92%
25 DET @OAK 50.5 2.5 26.5 2.1 1.2 0.13 4.81 2%
26 TB @SEA 51 7 29 3.0 1.1 0.11 4.81 5%
27 NYG DAL 48 7.5 27.75 2.5 1.1 0.12 4.79 2%
28 ARI SF 48 9.5 28.75 2.6 1.0 0.11 4.34 2%

Takes

  1. BUF vs WAS: If Buffalo, of all teams, is favored by 9.5 points over your team, then your team just might be bad. Really bad. Buffalo’s defense is pretty good, even if their offense isn’t, so they’re a great start this week against the disaster that is Washington.
  2. DAL @ NYG: We’re six weeks into the Daniel Jones experience. While Giants fans have reason to be optimistic, it turns out he’s pretty good for opposing defenses. As a starter, he’s averaged 3.5 sacks and more than an interception per game. He’s also fumbled on a full third of his sacks, which means a solid defense like Dallas has plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points.
  3. CAR vs TEN: Ryan Tannehill has been an improvement over Marcus Mariota for the Titans, but in the way that a trash can fire is less alarming than a dumpster fire. Carolina has the league’s third-best real-world defense, so they should have no trouble shutting down the Titans at home.
  4. SF vs ARI: Speaking of the best real-world defenses in the league, San Francisco is awesome. This week they get an opponent that’s top-10 in pass rate, and bottom-10 in yards per pass attempt. SF should do great from both a points allowed and from a turnover perspective.
  5. NYJ @ MIA: For one glorious quarter at the beginning of Monday Night Football, we all thought the Dolphins might actually show some life against the Steelers. That obviously didn’t last, and they finished the night allowing four turnovers and four sacks, and were shut out after the first quarter. The Jets’ and Steelers’ defenses are about equal, so a similar (excellent) performance is in the cards for New York this week.
  6. DEN vs CLE: The fact that Denver is favored for this game despite losing Joe Flacco means Vegas really has no respect for the Browns. This is where I start my second tier because there will always be risk against Baker Mayfield, but he is still the most interception-prone quarterback in the league, and that’s exactly what we want for fantasy.
  7. SEA vs TB: Speaking of risk and interceptions, Jameis Winston is exactly the type of player to throw for 400 yards and five interceptions in the same game (which is exactly what he did two weeks ago against Carolina).
  8. CLE @ DEN: The Broncos starting quarterback is Brandon Allen, who has not only never started, but has never been second-string. This should be amazing news for Cleveland, but it’s not like Joe Flacco was that good either. The Broncos are likely to lean as heavily as they can on their run game. That may or may not work, but it will avoid giving Allen too many opportunities to make mistakes.
  9. NE @ BAL: Baltimore is better than any offense the Patriots have faced so far, but they have room to get a lot worse and still be the best defense in fantasy. The Patriots are less likely to put up absurd fantasy numbers because the Ravens are so run-focused, but they should still do a good job of keeping points off the board.
  10. TEN @ CAR: This is the desperation zone. You don’t want to start anyone ranked this low, but with four teams on bye, you might have to. With an implied point total under 22 and a quarterback averaging more than three sacks per game, Carolina is a decent target for a decent Titans defense.
  11. WAS @ BUF: Like Buffalo, Washington is one of many teams with a solid defense attached to a horrible offense. Even as 9.5-point favorites, Buffalo’s implied point total is only 23, and Josh Allen has fumbled on almost half of his sacks taken (which have been plentiful, even if not disaster-tier, at 2.7 per game). At 3% ownership, Washington is your last resort.

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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.