Immigration, the border and the economy have emerged as key issues in this year's presidential election and may determine who wins the White House. But the person who could tip the scales for either candidate…is another president. Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, widely known by his initials "AMLO." Charismatic, and often combative, "AMLO" won a landslide victory in 2018 on the promise to root-out corruption, reduce poverty and violent crime. Now, 70 years old and in the final stretch of his term, we met the president in Mexico City for a candid conversation about his handling of immigration, trade, the fentanyl crisis, and the cartels. And he told us why he thinks…when Donald Trump says he is going to shut down the border or build a wall, he's bluffing.

Sharyn Alfonsi: President Trump is saying he wants to build a wall again. 

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): On the campaign. 

Sharyn Alfonsi: But you don't think he'd actually do it?

President López Obrador (in Spanish) No, no..

Sharyn Alfonsi: Because? Because he needs Mexico. 

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Because we understood each other very well. We signed an economic, a commercial agreement that has been favorable for both peoples, for both nations. He knows it. And President Biden, the same.

Sharyn Alfonsi: But what about the people that'll say, "Oh. But the wall works"?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): It doesn't work!

And President López Obrador says he told that to then-President Trump during a phone call. They were supposed to be discussing the pandemic.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): It was an agreement not to speak about the wall because we were not going to agree.

Sharyn Alfonsi: And then you talked about it.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): That was the only time. And I told him, "I am going to send you, Mr. President, some videos of tunnels from Tijuana up to San Diego, that passed right under U.S. Customs." He stayed quiet, and then he started laughing and told me "I can't win with you."

We met President Andrés Manuel López Obrador at Mexico's National Palace earlier this month. With six months left on his six-year term, López Obrador's power in Mexico - and influence in the United States - has never been greater. The White House witnessed it – here – last December when a record 250,000 migrants overwhelmed the U.S. southern border with Mexico.

Sharyn Alfonsi: President Biden called you. He sent his Secretary of State. What did they say to you and what did they ask for from you?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): For us to try and contain the flow of migration. 

A month later, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol reported the number of migrant crossing dropped by 50 percent.

Sharyn Alfonsi: So what did you do between December and January that changed that number so dramatically?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): We were more careful about our southern border. We spoke with the presidents of Central America, with the president of Venezuela and with the president of Cuba. We asked them for help in curbing the flow of migrants. However, that is a short-term solution, not a long-term one. 

Mexico also increased patrols at the border, flying some migrants to the southern part of Mexico and deporting others. But by February, the number of migrants crossing into the U.S. began to rise again and the Border Patrol expects a sharp increase in that number this spring. 

Sharyn Alfonsi: Everybody thinks you have the power in this moment to slow down migration. Do you plan to?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): We do and want to continue doing it, but we do want for the root causes to be attended to, for them to be seriously looked at.

With the ear of the White House – President López Obrador proposed his fix- that the United States commit $20 billion a year to poor countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, lift sanctions on Venezuela, end the Cuban embargo and legalize millions of law-abiding Mexicans living in the U.S.

Sharyn Alfonsi: If they don't do the things that you said need to be done, then what?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): The flow of migrants… will continue.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Your critics have said what you're doing, what you're asking for to help secure the border is diplomatic blackmail. What do you say?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): I am speaking frankly, we have to say things as they are, and I always say what I feel. I always say what I think.

Sharyn Alfonsi: If they don't do those things, will you continue to help to secure the border?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Yes, because our relationship is very important. It is fundamental.

For much of the last six years, President López Obrador has held a televised 7 a.m. press conference…five days a week. During our visit he was dissecting "fake news." The briefing lasted more than two hours.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Is it a pulpit or is it a press conference?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): It is a circular dialogue, even though my opponents say that I am on a pulpit.

Time is the only luxury AMLO seems comfortable spending. When he took office, he sold the presidential jet, and his predecessors' fleet of bulletproof cars in favor of his Volkswagen. He uses his daily briefings to rail against "the elite" and enemies, real and perceived. At times it can feel like a political telenovela. At a briefing last month, the president stunned the audience when he read the cellphone number of a "New York Times" reporter - who was pursuing what he viewed as a critical story of him.

Sharyn Alfonsi: It looks like you were threatening that reporter.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): I didn't do it with the intention of harming her. She, like yourself, are public figures, and I am as well.

Sharyn Alfonsi: But you know this is a dangerous place for reporters. And you know that threats often come in text and phones. When you put her phone number up behind you, you realized what you were doing.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): No, no, no, no. No.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Well, what did you think you were doing?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): It's a form of responding to a libel. Imagine what it means for this reporter to write that the president of Mexico has connections with drug traffickers… And without having any proof. That is a vile slander.

Sharyn Alfonsi: So then why not just say it's not true?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Because libel, when it doesn't stain, it smears.

López Obrador's bare knuckle brawls with the press are in sharp contrast to the softer approach he's taken with the drug cartels. He dissolved the federal police and created a National Guard to take over public security and he invested millions to create jobs for young people to escape the grip of the cartels. According to the Mexican government, homicides have dropped almost 20% since he took office. The president calls his approach, "hugs, not bullets."

Sharyn Alfonsi: How is that working out for Mexico?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Very well.

Sharyn Alfonsi: There are still 30,000 homicides in Mexico, and very few of those are prosecuted. So, there's an idea that there's still lawlessness in Mexico. Is that fair?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Of course we prosecute them. There is no impunity in Mexico. They all get prosecuted.

Sharyn Alfonsi: It's a small percent.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): More than before.

According to México Evalúa, a Mexican think tank, about 5% of the country's homicides are prosecuted. And a study last year reported cartels have expanded their reach, employing an estimated 175,000 people to extort businesses and traffic migrants and drugs into the U.S.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Can you reach the cartel and say, "Knock it off?"

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): No, no, no, no, no. What you have to do with the criminals is apply the law. But I'm not going to establish contact, communication with a criminal, the President of Mexico.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Are you saying you don't have to reach out to them or communicate with them?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): No, no, no, no, no, because you cannot negotiate with criminals. 

Sharyn Alfonsi: The head of the DEA says cartels are mass producing fentanyl, and the U.S. State Department has said that most of it is coming out of Mexico. Are they wrong?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Yes. Or rather, they don't have all the information, because fentanyl is also produced in the United States.

Sharyn Alfonsi: The State Department says most of it's coming from Mexico.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Fentanyl is produced in the United States, in Canada, and in Mexico. And the chemical precursors come from Asia. You know why we don't have the drug consumption that you have in the United States? Because we have customs, traditions, and we don't have the problem of the disintegration of the family.

Sharyn Alfonsi: But there is drug consumption in Mexico.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): But very little. 

Sharyn Alfonsi: So, why the violence, then, in Mexico?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Because drug trafficking exists, but not the consumption.

López Obrador says threats by U.S. lawmakers to shut down the border to curb drug trafficking, is little more than saber rattling. That's because last year, Mexico became America's top trading partner. 

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): They could say, "we are going to close the border," but we mutually need each other.

Sharyn Alfonsi: What would happen to the U.S. if they closed the border?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): You would not be able to buy inexpensive cars if the border is closed. That is, you would have to pay $10,000, $15,000 dollars more for a car. There are factories in Mexico and there are factories in the United States that are fundamental for all the consumers in the United States and all the consumers in Mexico. 

Last year, the Mexican economy grew 3% and unemployment hit a record low. But critics says Mexico's economic growth isn't because of the president, rather, in spite of him. López Obrador directed billions to signature mega projects like an oil refinery in his home state and a railroad through the Yucatan Jungle…costing an estimated $28 billion.

Sharyn Alfonsi: What about infrastructure? Aren't there more dire concerns like, you know, clean water, roads, reliable energy, when you're trying to attract business to Mexico?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): We are doing both, fixing the roads and building this train. It will link all the ancient Mayan cities and is going to allow Mexicans and tourists to enjoy a paradise region that is the southeast of Mexico. 

López Obrador has spent unapologetically on social programs - doubling the minimum wage, increasing pensions, and scholarships. His approval rating has remained high - upwards of 60% for most of his presidency.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Your critics say that you're popular because you give people money. What do you say?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): I would say they are partly right. Our formula is simple: It is not to allow corruption; not to make for an ostentatious government, for luxuries; and everything we save we allocate to the people.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Do you think that you've been able to get rid of the corruption in Mexico?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Yes.

Sharyn Alfonsi: Completely?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Yes, basically, because corruption in Mexico started from the top down. 

But Transparency International reports no improvement in the corruption problems that have plagued Mexico for decades. Huge crowds gathered last month, accusing the president of trying to eliminate the country's democratic checks and balances. In June, Mexico will have one of largest elections in its history…in addition to the presidency, 20,000 local positions are up for grabs. The cartels have funded and preyed on local candidates. Last month, two mayoral hopefuls were killed within hours of each other, raising fears of a bloody election.

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): I can travel throughout the entire country without problem. There is no region that I cannot go and visit.

Sharyn Alfonsi: The number of government officials and candidates murdered rose from 94 in 2018 to 355 last year. You don't view that as a threat to you, obviously, but do you view it as a threat to democracy?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation) No. There are some specific instances. There is no state repression.

Sharyn Alfonsi: But if a candidate's afraid to run because they may be assassinated, isn't that a threat to democracy?

President López Obrador (in Spanish/English translation): Generally, they all participate, there are many candidates, from all the parties. 

His hand-picked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has a commanding lead in the polls, and could become Mexico's first female president. López Obrador told us when he leaves office, he will retire from politics and write books. But what he does next at the border -or doesn't do - could shape the next chapter of the United States.

Produced by Michael Karzis. Associate producer, Katie Kerbstat Jacobson. Broadcast associate, Erin DuCharme. Edited by Daniel J. Glucksman

In:
• Mexico
• Andrés Manuel López Obrador
• U.S.-Mexico Border