News Analysis
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first detailed postwar plan for Gaza was carefully written to postpone long-term decisions about the territory’s fate and to avoid irreversible confrontations with both domestic allies and foreign partners, analysts said.
Mr. Netanyahu’s position paper, released on Friday, said Israel would retain indefinite military control over the enclave while ceding the administration of civilian life to Gazans without links to Hamas. If carried out, it would make it nearly impossible in the short term to establish a Palestinian state comprising Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
The plan signaled to Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing base that he is defying foreign pressure on Israel to leave Gaza and allow the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the vagueness of its wording signaled to the United States and other foreign powers pressing for Palestinian sovereignty that there is still room to maneuver.
To satisfy mainstream Israeli opinion, Mr. Netanyahu said he wanted to retain military control of both Gaza and the West Bank; subcontract the management of civilian affairs to Gazan administrators; and retain control of buffer zones lining Gaza’s borders with Egypt and Israel.
Mr. Netanyahu also didn’t explicitly refer to the issue of settlements to avoid angering his far-right coalition partners, who could collapse his government if he rules out resettling Gaza with Jews.
All of these approaches infuriated the Palestinian leadership, which quickly condemned the plan. They are also likely to heighten tensions with Israel’s foreign allies, including the United States, who want Israel to abandon the buffer zones; engage in a process toward the creation of a Palestinian state; and hand over control of Gaza to a revamped version of the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank.
But Mr. Netanyahu was also careful not to go too far. He included no new ideas, choosing instead to repackage proposals that he has presented several times before. Nor did he directly rule out any of the options promoted by the United States.
Mr. Netanyahu’s pledge to hand day-to-day administration to Gazan managers did not explicitly reject the idea that they could be directed by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
“The administration of civilian affairs and the enforcement of public order will be based on local stakeholders with managerial experience” who are not “affiliated with countries or entities that support terrorism,” the position paper said, avoiding any mention of the Palestinian Authority while implicitly creating a challenge to its involvement.
The plan also rejected the idea of foreign countries unilaterally recognizing a Palestinian state, a move recently hinted at by Britain and France. But it did not directly dismiss the idea of Palestinian statehood altogether, even though Mr. Netanyahu has on other occasions rejected the concept.
The document even leaves open the possibility of “a permanent arrangement with the Palestinians,” which it says “will only be achieved through direct negotiation between the parties.”
By using such ambiguous language, analysts said, the plan buys Mr. Netanyahu time because it satisfies his base while giving foreign leaders hope that he could still change course before it is too late.
“It doesn’t ruin anyone’s plan,” said Nadav Strauchler, a political analyst and former strategist for Mr. Netanyahu. “It leaves a lot of options open and postpones a lot of decisions.”
“He is treading a thin line,” Mr. Strauchler said. “Think how many different eyes and audiences are reading this paper with different glasses.”