WUHAN, China — President Xi Jinping strode onstage before an adoring audience in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing less than three weeks ago, trumpeting his successes in steering China through a tumultuous year and promising “landmark” progress in 2020.

中国武汉——不到三周前，中国国家主席习近平曾在北京人民大会堂里一群崇拜他的听众面前大步走上主席台，吹嘘自己成功地带领中国度过了动荡的一年，并承诺要在2020年取得“里程碑”式的进展。

“Every single Chinese person, every member of the Chinese nation, should feel proud to live in this great era,” he declared to applause on the day before the Lunar New Year holiday. “Our progress will not be halted by any storms and tempests.”

“中国人民的每一分子，中华民族的每一分子，都应该为处在这样一个伟大时代感到骄傲、感到自豪，”他在农历新年长假前的那天宣布。“我们要......风雨无阻向前进！”

Mr. Xi made no mention of a dangerous new coronavirus that had already taken tenacious hold in the country. As he spoke, the government was locking down Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, in a frantic attempt to stop the virus spreading from its epicenter.

习近平只字未提已在中国大肆传播的一种危险的新型冠状病毒。就在他发表讲话的时候，政府正在对有1100万人口的武汉进行封城，手忙脚乱地试图阻止病毒从暴发中心扩散。

Now, Mr. Xi faces an accelerating health crisis that is also a political one: a profound test of the authoritarian system he has built around himself over the past seven years. As the Chinese government struggles to contain the virus amid rising public discontent with its performance, the changes that Mr. Xi has ushered in could make it difficult for him to escape blame.

现在，习近平面临着一场日益严重的健康危机，同时也是一场政治危机：这是对他在过去七年里围绕自己建立起来的威权体制的一次巨大考验。在中国政府努力遏制新冠病毒，而公众对政府的表现越来越不满的时候，习近平上台后带来的变化可能会让他很难逃脱指责。

“It’s a big shock to the legitimacy of the ruling party. I think it could be only second to the June 4 incident of 1989. It’s that big,” said Rong Jian, a writer about politics in Beijing, referring to the armed crackdown on Tiananmen Square protesters that year.

“这是对执政党合法性的一次巨大冲击。我认为它仅次于1989年的‘六四’事件。大到这种程度，”从事政治著述的北京作家荣剑说，他指的是当年武力镇压天安门广场抗议活动的事情。

“There’s no doubt about his control over power," he added, “but the manner of control and its consequences have hurt his legitimacy and reputation.”

“没有人怀疑他控制着权力，”荣剑又说，“但控制的方式及后果已损害了他的合法性和名声。”

Mr. Xi himself has recognized what is at stake, calling the outbreak “a major test of China’s system and capacity for governance.”

习近平本人也意识到了这场危机的严重性，称疫情“对中国的制度和治理能力形成重大考验”。

Yet as China’s battle with the coronavirus intensified, Mr. Xi put the country’s No. 2 leader, Li Keqiang, in charge of a leadership group handling the emergency, effectively turning him into the public face of the government’s response. It was Mr. Li who traveled to Wuhan to visit doctors.

然而，就在中国加大力度与冠状病毒作斗争的同时，习近平让中国二号领导人李克强来主管一个应对疫情的领导小组，实际上让李克强成为代表政府应对措施出头露面的人。是李克强去武汉看望了医护人员。

Mr. Xi, by contrast, receded from public view for several days. That was not without precedent, though it stood out in this crisis, after previous Chinese leaders had used times of disaster to try to show a more common touch. State television and newspapers almost always lead with fawning coverage of Mr. Xi’s every move.

相比之下，习近平从公众视线中消失了数天。这并非没有先例，但这个做法在此次危机中更为突出，因为之前的几位中国领导人都曾利用灾难发生的时刻试图表现出更多平易近人的形象。国家电视台和官方报纸几乎总是把习近平的一举一动作为头条新闻来报道。

That retreat from the spotlight, some analysts said, signaled an effort by Mr. Xi to insulate himself from a campaign that may falter and draw public ire. Yet Mr. Xi has consolidated power, sidelining or eliminating rivals, so there are few people left to blame when something goes wrong.

一些分析人士说，习近平从公众视线中消失所示意的是，政府应对疫情的战斗可能会失败，并可能引发公众愤怒，他正在努力与不良后果划清界限。然而，习近平已巩固了权力，排挤或消除了竞争对手，因此在出差错时，几乎没有别人可以指责。

“Politically, I think he is discovering that having total dictatorial power has a downside, which is that when things go wrong or have a high risk of going wrong, then you also have to bear all the responsibility,” said Victor Shih, an associate professor at the University of California San Diego who studies Chinese politics.

“政治上，我认为他正在发现，总揽独裁大权有不好的一面，那就是，在出差错或出差错的风险很高时，你也必须承担所有的责任，”加州大学圣迭戈分校研究中国政治的副教授史宗瀚(Victor Shih)说。

Much of the country’s population has been told to stay at home, factories remain closed and airlines have cut service. Experts warn that the coronavirus could slam the economy if not swiftly contained.

大部分中国人被告知要待在家里，工厂仍关闭，航空公司也减少了航班。专家警告，如果不迅速加以控制，新冠病毒可能会给经济带来重创。

The government is also having trouble controlling the narrative. Mr. Xi now faces unusually sharp public discontent that even China’s rigorous censorship apparatus has been unable to stifle entirely.

政府在控制舆情方面也遇到了困难。习近平现在面临着罕见的公众强烈不满，就连中国严格的审查机器也无法完全压制这种不满。

State media still portray Mr. Xi as ultimately in control, and there’s no sign that he faces a serious challenge from within the party leadership. The crisis, though, has already tainted China’s image as an emerging superpower — efficient, stable and strong — that could eventually rival the United States.

官方媒体仍将习近平描绘为掌握最终大权的人，没有迹象表明他面临着来自党内领导层的严重挑战。然而，这场危机已经损害了中国作为一个新兴超级大国的形象，中国在人们眼里曾经高效、稳定、强大，并最终可能与美国匹敌。

How much the crisis might erode Mr. Xi’s political standing remains to be seen, but it could weaken his position in the longer run as he prepares to take a likely third term as Communist Party general secretary in 2022.

这场危机会在多大程度上削弱习近平目前的政治地位还有待观察，但可能会削弱他的长远地位，他已在为2022年第三次连任中共中央总书记的可能性做准备。

In 2018, Mr. Xi won approval to remove the constitutional limits on his term as the country’s president, making his plan for another five-year term seem all but certain.

2018年，习近平取消宪法对其国家主席任期限制的提议赢得了全国人大的批准，这让他的下一个五年任期看起来几乎确定无疑。

If Mr. Xi comes out of this crisis politically insecure, the consequences are unpredictable. He may become more open to compromise within the party elite. Or he may double down on the imperious ways that have made him China’s most powerful leader in generations.

如果习近平在走出这场危机时有政治上的不安全感，后果不可预测。他可能会更愿意与党内精英达成妥协。他也可能会加倍自己的专横做法，这种做法已让他成为几代人以来中国最强大的领导人。

“Xi’s grip on power is not light,” said Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“习近平紧握大权的手不会松开，”华盛顿战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)费和中国研究项目(Freeman Chair in China Studies)主任裘德·布兰切特(Jude Blanchette)说。

“While the ham-fisted response to this crisis undoubtedly adds a further blemish to Xi’s tenure in office,” Mr. Blanchette added, “the logistics of organizing a leadership challenge against him remain formidable.”

“虽然在处理这场危机上的笨手笨脚无疑给习近平的任期增添了更多的污点，但挑战他领导力的组织工作仍十分艰巨，”他还说。

In recent days, despite a dearth of public appearances, state media have portrayed Mr. Xi as a tireless commander in chief. This week they began calling the government’s fight against the virus the “people’s war,” a phrase used in the official readout of Mr. Xi’s telephone call with President Trump on Friday.

尽管最近几天里很少公开露面，但官媒一直把习近平描绘成一个不知疲倦的三军统帅。本周，官媒已开始把政府抗击病毒的行动称为一场“人民战争”，这是官媒报道习近平上周五与特朗普总统通电话时使用的词汇。

There are increasing signs that the propaganda this time is proving less than persuasive.

有越来越多的迹象表明，这次的宣传说服力不够。

The Lunar New Year reception in Beijing where Mr. Xi spoke became a source of popular anger, a symbol of a government slow to respond to the suffering in Wuhan. Mr. Xi and other leaders appear to have been caught off guard by the ferocity of the epidemic.

习近平在北京举行春节团拜会上的讲话已成为民众愤怒的原因之一，这个讲话是政府对武汉的灾难反应迟缓的象征。习近平和其他领导人似乎被这次疫情的严重程度搞得措手不及。

Senior officials would almost certainly have been informed of the emerging crisis by the time national health authorities told the World Health Organization on Dec. 31, but neither Mr. Xi nor other officials in Beijing informed the public.

中国卫生部门去年12月31日向世界卫生组织通报疫情之前，政府高层官员几乎可以肯定对情况已有所了解，但习近平和北京的其他官员都没有把情况告知公众。

Mr. Xi’s first acknowledgment of the epidemic came on Jan. 20, when brief instructions were issued under his name. His first public appearance after the lockdown of Wuhan on Jan. 23 came two days later, when he presided over a meeting of the Communist Party’s top body, the Politburo Standing Committee, which was shown at length on Chinese television. “We’re sure to be able to win in this battle,” he proclaimed.

习近平首次公开承认疫情是1月20日，那天，官媒以他的名义发表了一份简短指示。习近平在武汉1月23日封城两天后首次公开露面，他在当天主持召开了中共中央政治局常务委员会会议，并在会上宣称，“我们一定能打赢疫情防控阻击战。”

Back then, the death toll was 106. As it rose, Mr. Xi allowed other officials to take on more visible roles. Mr. Xi’s only appearances have been meeting foreign visitors in the Great Hall of the People or presiding over Communist Party meetings.

那时，疾病死亡人数还只有106人。随着死亡人数的增加，习近平开始让其他官员更多地露面。他本人只是在人民大会堂会见外国政要或主持中共会议时才露面。

On Jan. 28, Mr. Xi met with the executive director of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and told Dr. Tedros that he “personally directed” the government’s response. Later reports in state media omitted the phrase, saying instead that Mr. Xi’s government was “collectively directing” the response.

1月28日，习近平与世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)见了面，并告诉后者他“亲自指导”了政府应对疫情的工作。官媒在后来的报道中没有用这个说法，而是说习近平的政府正在“统一领导”应对措施。

Since nothing about how Mr. Xi is portrayed in state media happens by accident, the tweak suggested a deliberate effort to emphasize shared responsibility.

因为官媒报道习近平时的用词从来都不是偶然的，这个小改动暗示了强调共同责任的刻意做法。

Mr. Xi did not appear on official broadcasts again for a week — until a highly scripted meeting on Wednesday with the authoritarian leader of Cambodia, Hun Sen.

那之后，习近平有一周时间未再次在官方电视节目中出现，直到上周三，他与柬埔寨独裁领导人洪森会面的场景才在电视台上以精心安排的方式播出。

There is little evidence that Mr. Xi has given up power behind the scenes. Mr. Li, the premier in formal charge of the leadership group for the crisis, and other officials have said that they take their orders from Mr. Xi. The group is filled with officials who work closely under Mr. Xi, and its directives emphasize his authority.

没有多少证据表明习近平已在幕后放弃了权力。形式上负责疫情工作领导小组的李克强以及其他官员都说，他们听从习近平的指挥。该领导小组里都是习近平手下与他一起密切工作的官员，领导小组的指示也都强调了习近平的权威。

“The way the epidemic is being handled now from the top just doesn’t fit with the argument that there’s been a clear shift toward more collective, consultative leadership,” said Holly Snape, a British Academy Fellow at the University of Glasgow who studies Chinese politics.

格拉斯哥大学(University of Glasgow)研究中国政治的不列颠学院院士霍利·斯内普(Holly Snape)说，“目前这种从上到下应对疫情的方式，与认为已出现了向更集体化、更协商式领导的明显转变的观点不相符。”

The scale of discontent and the potential challenges for Mr. Xi could be measured by repeated references online to the nuclear accident at Chernobyl. Many of them came under the guise of viewer reviews of the popular television mini-series of the same name, which is still available for streaming inside China.

公众的不满程度以及习近平所面临的潜在挑战，可以用人们在网上提及切尔诺贝利核事故的次数来衡量。其中有很多是假借对受欢迎的同名迷你剧剧评的形式，这部电视剧仍可在中国国内的网上看到。

“In any era, any country, it’s the same. Cover everything up,” one reviewer wrote.

“在任何时代，任何国家，都一样。都把一切都掩盖起来，”一位评论者写道。

The Soviet Union of 1986, however, was a different country than China in 2020.

然而，1986年的苏联与2020年的中国有很大的不同。

The Soviet state was foundering when Chernobyl happened, said Sergey Radchenko, a professor of international relations at Cardiff University in Wales who has written extensively on Soviet and Chinese politics.

切尔诺贝利事故发生时，苏联正在解体，威尔士卡迪夫大学(Cardiff University)的国际关系教授谢尔盖·拉琴科(Sergey Radchenko)说，他写过许多有关苏联和中国政治的文章。

“The Chinese authorities, by contrast, are demonstrating an ability to cope, a willingness to take unprecedented measures — logistical feats that may actually increase the regime’s legitimacy,” he added.

“相比之下，中国当局正表现出一种应对能力，一种采取前所未有措施的意愿，当局的组织工作壮举也许确实会提高中共政权的合法性，”他补充说。

Mr. Radchenko compared Mr. Xi’s actions to those of previous leaders in moments of crisis: Mao Zedong after the Cultural Revolution or Deng Xiaoping after the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

拉琴科把习近平的做法与以前的领导人在危机时刻的做法进行了比较：比如毛泽东在“文革”后、邓小平在天安门镇压后。

“He’s doing what Mao and Deng would have done in similar circumstances: stepping back into the shadows while remaining firmly in charge.”

“他正在做毛泽东和邓小平在类似情况下可能会做的事情：退居二线，但仍把权力牢牢掌握在手中。”