The countless hours on the practice fields and in the weight room during the dog days of summer helped prepare LSU for the moment that comes Monday night when two Tigers with different stripes battle for 60 minutes for the final and most important No. 1 ranking of the college football season.
On one side is No. 1-ranked LSU. A group that beat six top-10 teams in 2019, won many of the nation’s top individual awards, and came out of nowhere to land on the biggest stage of all.
On the other side is a No. 3 Clemson squad that most expected to make it to New Orleans to defend its national title riding a 29-game winning streak.
One team features a head coach who revived his career and ascended up the head coaching ranks to the nation’s best just two years after some were thinking of his replacement. The other had already been granted the title as the best in school history after two national championships in the previous three years and his fourth trip to the final.
Each team has three national titles in its proud history with a fourth within its grasp.
The stage is set for a battle on the bayou.
Let’s take one final look at the matchup, taking it a step farther and analyzing who has the advantages when LSU’s offense takes the field against Clemson’s defense and vice versa, along with everything you need to know before wrapping things up with our staff’s predictions.
On to the preview…
Injury Report
With only two games in the past month, both teams enter Monday’s contest as healthy as they have been all season.
The big news centered on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s hamstring that limited the star running back in the Peach Bowl win over Oklahoma that catapulted the Tigers into the championship. He is 100 percent, and that is good news for an LSU offense that did not skip a beat with the junior on the sideline but is more explosive with him on the field.
Starting right guard Damien Lewis left the playoff semifinal early but Ed Orgeron said he will play. Expect Ed Ingram to see action inside to give Lewis some plays off like he’s done since returning to the field in October.
The news is just as good for Terrace Marshall. A stinger kept him out of some practices, but the sophomore wide receiver is good to go.
On the Clemson front, starting defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney is questionable. If he plays, Dabo Swinney said Pinckney will be limited. That’s a big loss when the Tigers play a four-man front.
Starting receivers Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross are both fine after nursing minor injuries and taking some practices off during preparations in South Carolina.
Point Spread
Over the past two weeks, SportsLine reported a line shift from LSU favored by 4.5 points to as many as 6, with the current line sitting at 5.5 points as of Sunday afternoon.
The over/under for the game is at 69 points and got as high as 70.
Series History
LSU and Clemson met for the first time on New Year’s Day in the 1959 Sugar Bowl that capped off LSU’s first national championship in 1958.
LSU already clinched the national title as the final edition of the major polls was released in December. No. 1-ranked LSU stayed undefeated with a 7-0 victory over No. 12 Clemson after Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon threw a 9-yard touchdown pass to Mickey Mangham for the game’s only score.
The two never met again until the 1996 Peach Bowl that LSU won, 10-7.
Clemson jumped out to an early 7-0 lead, but LSU scored the final 10 points of the half and both defenses pitched a shutout over the final 30 minutes.
Clemson got revenge in the 2012 Chick-fil-A Bowl with a walk-off field goal that secured a 25-24 win. LSU gained just 1 yard of offense in the fourth quarter and squandered a 24-13 lead over the final 15 minutes.
This marks the fourth meeting in the series.
How to Watch
Kickoff is slated for approximately 7 p.m. CT on ESPN with Chris Fowler handling play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit as the color analyst, and Maria Taylor and Tom Rinaldi serving as the sideline reporters.
The LSU Sports Radio Network will broadcast the action with Chris Blair handling play-by-play, former Tiger Doug Moreau serving as the color analyst, and former Tiger Gordy Rush reporting from the sidelines.
LSU Passing Attack vs. Clemson Pass Defense
It’s tough to top a matchup featuring the No. 2 passing offense against the No. 1 pass defense.
Both units have been unstoppable over the long haul, so for me, I look at how each did against the best competition.
In LSU’s six wins against top-10 foes, Joe Burrow averaged 386 yards with 22 touchdowns and two interceptions. Those opponents combined for 15 sacks led by Alabama’s five and Texas’ four. The last two opponents, however, totaled just three.
Clemson’s defense that leads the nation, allowing only 151.5 yards a game and yielding the fewest amount of passing scores at nine, faced only two of the top 32 passing offenses in the country in No. 24 Wake Forest and No. 25 North Carolina.
North Carolina accounted for only 144 yards through the air, while Wake Forest mustered only 41. No. 33 Virginia posted the second-highest Clemson allowed in 2019 with 283. Ohio State threw for the most with 320 yards on 30-of-46 passing by Justin Fields. Those four teams threw five touchdown passes and Clemson picked them off seven times with 11 sacks.
LSU’s deep crop of receivers will be the most dangerous Clemson has faced and the 5-wide package is the best in America.
My X-factor for LSU is Thaddeus Moss. Clemson has to pay special attention to someone and I feel Moss will be the beneficiary of that with openings in the middle of the field.
For Clemson, All-America linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons has to stay with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and/or Moss and be a difference maker like he was against Ohio State.
The biggest key is LSU’s tempo that will make Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables have to get his plays in quicker than he likes.
In a battle of best vs. best, it’s not as close as the stats show.
Advantage – LSU
Clemson Passing Attack vs. LSU Pass Defense
Comparing apples to apples, Dave Aranda’s unit played against five of the top 32 passing attacks – Alabama (3), Florida (16), Oklahoma (18), Texas (21) and Utah State (31). Texas and Alabama both topped 400 yards with 409 and 418, respectively, while Florida threw for 311. LSU held Utah State to 140 yards and Oklahoma to 225.
Two things bare mentioning. One, this defense goes against the nation’s top-rated offense every day, and those big chunks of yards came when the Tigers were not healthy on the back end with All-America safety Grant Delpit nursing injuries.
Delpit is healthy and LSU is playing at a much higher level than at any point in the season with K’Lavon Chaisson providing a pass rush off one edge. Add in Michael Divinity back on the other end in obvious passing situations and LSU should pose problems to an offensive line that allows only a sack a game and has gone with the same starting five in 13 of the 14 contests.
Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and has plenty of weapons surrounding him with 6-foot-4 receivers Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers in the slot with Travis Etienne out of the backfield.
Lawrence had a bit of a sophomore slump early on with eight interceptions and only 14 touchdowns in the first half of the season. Since then, he’s tossed 22 scoring passes and has not been picked off while averaging 271 yards a Saturday despite not playing much in the second half because the score was so out of hand.
Ohio State’s No. 2 defense limited Lawrence to 54.5 percent passing and 259 yards with a pair of scores and that was the only unit in the top 32 he faced.
LSU will present some problems with Derek Stingley and Kristian Fulton, but the size of Higgins and Ross with Lawrence slinging the rock still gives Clemson a slight edge.
Advantage – Clemson
LSU Run Game vs. Clemson Run Defense
Brent Venables’ defense is 15th in the land and allows only 115 yards a contest. Five opponents failed to reach 100 yards and only one topped 157 when Ohio State gashed the Tigers for 196 yards and averaged five yards a carry.
Clemson will likely use a 3-man front if it is going to have any success at slowing down Joe Burrow and co. That does not bode well for keeping the run game from ripping off chunks of yards, especially with starting defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney limited, if he plays at all.
After Chris Curry’s 89 yards against Oklahoma and with Clyde Edwards-Helaire healthy, not to mention Tyrion Davis-Price and John Emery, LSU has a solid advantage.
Keep an eye on Burrow. His running could be a wrinkle Clemson isn’t expecting.
Advantage – LSU
Clemson Run Game vs. LSU Run Defense
Travis Etienne is one of the best backs in America with 18 touchdowns – two more than Clyde Edwards-Helaire – averaging 109 yards a game. Add in the emotion of playing against LSU with everything that went down with his recruitment and Etienne will be tough to contain.
Etienne is the type of back that has given LSU trouble with his ability to make defenders miss in space. Like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence’s running ability is an added wrinkle Clemson hasn’t shown much this year but brought out against Ohio State with his career-high 107 yards and two touchdowns on 16 totes.
LSU has the size to handle Clemson between the tackles but tackling on the second and third levels with Etienne’s speed and elusiveness is cause for concern.
Advantage – Clemson
Special Teams
If you’re looking for a weakness, you’ve found it in the kicking department where Clemson hits only 13-of-22 field goals and averages 42.0 yards a punt.
Amari Rogers averages 10.6 yards a punt return and has one that went for 53 yards. Zach Von Rosenberg needs to have the same mindset he had after Jaylen Waddle housed a punt in Tuscaloosa.
Cade York had a rough patch where he missed an extra point in three straight games but worked his way out of it. Since the midway point of the regular season until the conference championship, he knocked down 11 of his last 12 field goals with three from 50 or more yards out.
In the postseason, the true freshman has hit 3-of-5 with misses from 48 and 46 yards. If it comes down to LSU needing a big game-winning kick, York gives them a huge leg but like any kid his age you wonder how he handles the moment.
Still, you have to like LSU more than an inconsistent Clemson kicking game.
Advantage – LSU
Predictions
Sonny Shipp’s Pick: The last two big games against Georgia and Oklahoma, I found myself looking for reasons why they could be close. This time around, I feel like Clemson has the horses to keep it close. The offense has the big-play guys with a veteran offensive line protecting a potential No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. LSU’s defense has played well of late and I think does so again, minus a few big plays. What separates these two is LSU features an offense that will go down as one of the best ever in college football at the skill positions as a unit. Joe Burrow has clicked all season and I don’t see that changing. The biggest difference is Clemson’s linebackers and defensive backs matched up against LSU, particularly 6-foot-2, 230-pound safety Tanner Muse having to cover one of Burrow’s five options. LSU scores touchdowns in the red zone against a defense that has allowed only 10 all year and the Tigers celebrate in the Big Easy…LSU 45, Clemson 34
Shea Dixon’s Pick: Clemson are the defending National Champions, have won 29 games in a row, have a starting quarterback who has never lost a college game and is the likely No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft in 2021. With plenty of top recruiting classes now on roster, it's tough to imagine Clemson not keeping momentum rolling on Monday. But the same can be said for LSU, who shattered SEC and NCAA records this season behind a Heisman Trophy winner and an offense that has brought the Tigers back to the forefront of the college football discussion. No team has been more impressive this year than LSU, and with the game in New Orleans, a Louisiana-heavy roster will be eager to make a splash on the biggest stage in the sport. I expect Burrow to have another huge night, as he's proven from high school through college, the bigger the stage, the bigger the performance. Look for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to turn in an MVP-type performance at running back, and while Clemson's offense is able to find points on LSU, it won't be enough to keep pace with an LSU offense that seems to only continue to pick up steam ... LSU 48, Clemson 31
Billy Embody’s Pick: LSU is set to face a Clemson team riding a 29-game winning streak with a quarterback that's likely to be one of the top NFL Draft picks in 2021. Clemson is a really strong team and prepares as well as anyone in college football, but I'm not going to bet against Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow going into this National Championship. I like Burrow & Co. to continue their impressive run against a Clemson defense that gave up over 500 yards of offense to Ohio State. With a healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire, it's even more positive for those Tigers. Burrow & Co. come out fast, but Clemson will punch back before both teams settle in. I think we're in for a great ball game, but too much LSU in the end. LSU pulls away in the second half…LSU 48, Clemson 31.