The big-picture forecast for Saturday hasn’t changed: Severe weather still appears possible across all of Alabama on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.
And it could be significant. Forecasters are warning of the potential for damaging winds, heavy rain and tornadoes on Saturday as a potent storm system crosses the area.
All this comes with an asterisk, however. The forecast will continue to evolve, and the timing and the areas at risk will likely change some over the next few days. So it is important to keep up to date with the forecast as the weekend draws closer.
The weather service is also urging Alabamians to prepare, just in case. That means having a safe place ready to go on Saturday should severe weather threaten and having reliable methods for getting weather warnings.
All of the state has the potential to see severe storms on Saturday, but the highest probabilities as of Wednesday morning remained across the western half of Alabama. That higher-probability area was expanded slightly to the east and the south (to include a bit more of Alabama) in the latest update but otherwise has remained relatively unchanged.
The higher probabilities translate to an enhanced risk for severe weather on Saturday.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham and Mobile are both forecasting an enhanced risk of severe weather for their entire forecast areas.
Forecasters on Wednesday were using strong language to describe an event that is still several days away:
“As it stands, a significant severe weather event appears likely,” the weather service in Birmingham said in its Wednesday morning forecast discussion.
“Forecast severe weather parameters are astounding, especially for the winter, and would be really high for the spring,” the weather service in Huntsville said in its morning forecast discussion.
Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main concerns. But there is also a concern about flooding, and not only with this system. A wet pattern could take shape next week that could bring up to 3 additional inches of rain to already swollen creeks and rivers in some parts of the state.
There could be two batches of storms on Saturday. One would be a round of individual storms or super cells that could bring the threat of tornadoes. Confidence is on the lower side on if those are able to develop.
Then more storms could track across the region in the form of a squall line, which brings its own threat for tornadoes and damaging winds.
The timing is still uncertain because of differences from computer forecast models. Some bring the worst weather to Alabama starting before dawn on Saturday, while others hold off until later in the morning.
The threat for severe weather should end by the late afternoon or evening as a cold front pushes through.
The system that will potentially generate this weekend’s severe weather was over the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday morning, according to the National Weather Service.
It will move quickly to the southeast. On Thursday an area of high pressure to the east of Alabama will begin pumping warmer and moist air from the Gulf over the state.
Rain could begin by Friday, although there are timing difference on when it could start. It will also get warmer, with highs on Friday ranging from the mid-60s in the north to the 70s in the south.
Sunday is expected to be drier for some places but Saturday’s cold front is forecast to stall and begin to move northward as a warm front, which will enhance rain chances for much of the state through the first part of next week.