14:22 GMT So what next? The word “asymmetric” is being used quite a bit by experts and those familiar with middle east geopolitics to describe the likely response Iran will take. In short, it won’t be a military one in the conventional sense.
People talk loosely of ‘war’ but Iran may use many tactics of asymmetric warfare after the killing of #Suleimani: assassinations, closing the straits of Hormuz, attacks on Saudi oil facilities, attacks on US and allied forces in Iraq, Hezbollah assault on Israel, and more besides
— Lindsey Hilsum (@lindseyhilsum) January 3, 2020
A lot of speculation on how Iran might respond to the killing of #Soleimani. Expect an asymmetric response, which means keeping a close eye on Lebanese Hezbollah and the organization's global presence.
— Colin P. Clarke (@ColinPClarke) January 3, 2020
If Iran retaliates against #SoleimaniKilled strategically, rather than emotionally, its targets will not be individual US diplomats and various assets in the Middle East, but the very US presence in Iraq & Syria. US vs Iran is a highly asymmetric conflict.
— Dmitri Trenin (@DmitriTrenin) January 3, 2020
Updated at 14:22 GMT
14:18 GMT Qassem Sumeimani had the status of a national hero even among secular Iranians and his death could act as a rallying cry, writes Mohammad Ali Shabani, a doctoral researcher at Soas University of London. He writes in a piece for the Guardian: .. at a time when his unprecedented sanctions had stirred unrest inside Iran, the political elite has just been handed a rallying cry. The strike on Suleimani, whose status approached that of national icon, will harden popular sentiment against the US while simultaneously shoring up the regime. For all his crowing about the decisive blow dealt to an insolent enemy, Trump may be about to discover that the problem with martyrs is that they live forever.
Updated at 14:18 GMT
Trump: Suleimani should have been killed years ago
Donal Trump has been on Twitter again, this time saying that Suleimani “should have been taken out years ago” and that he was “both hated and feared” within Iran.
....of PROTESTERS killed in Iran itself. While Iran will never be able to properly admit it, Soleimani was both hated and feared within the country. They are not nearly as saddened as the leaders will let the outside world believe. He should have been taken out many years ago!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020
This is Ben Quinn picking up the blog from Aamna Mohdin
Updated at 14:09 GMT
13:50 GMT The chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the last parliament has suggested the UK government did not know the US was going to carry out an airstrike to kill Suleimani. Tom Tugendhat told BBC News: “Well I’ve long believed that the purpose of having allies is that we can surprise our enemies and not each other, and it’s been a pattern, sadly, which has been a bit of a shame, that the US administration of late has not shared with us and that is a matter of concern. “I would urge the US administration to share much more closely with allies, particularly those who are fighting alongside in the region, including us.” He added: “But this is a tactical point. A strategic point is that the United States has rocked the regime much more than for example the death of Osama bin Laden rocked the jihadist movement. This is a much more significant incident.” Tugendhat said the airstrike “will doubtless have consequences”.
Updated at 14:04 GMT
US secretary of state says airstrike on Suleimani 'saved American lives'
The US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has said the airstrikes that killed Qassem Suleimani “saved American lives”. Speaking on CNN, Pompeo said the Iranian general was “actively plotting in the region to take action, big actions he described it, that would have put thousands, if not hundreds American lives at risk”. Pompeo said the airstrike was driven by “an intelligence-based assessment”, adding: “The American people also know the history of Qassem Suleimani. Hundreds of American lives on his hands too.” He added: “Last night was the time we needed to strike to make sure that this imminent attack that he was working actively was disrupted.” When asked if there was any imminent threat to US homeland, Pompeo said: “These were threats located in the region.” Pompeo went on to say that Donald Trump has shown “enormous restraint to date”, but added the government had to act because “the risk of doing nothing was enormous. Intelligence community made that assessment.” You can watch the full interview below.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the airstrike ordered to kill top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani "saved American lives." Pompeo said earlier this morning the decision to eliminate Soleimani was in response to "imminent threats to American lives." https://t.co/S9VYrZNDv9 pic.twitter.com/RL2eEQfGfq
— CNN (@CNN) January 3, 2020
Updated at 13:32 GMT
12:51 GMT Here’s Donald Trump’s latest tweet on the crisis.
Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020
Updated at 12:56 GMT
12:40 GMT The Liberal Democrats have criticised Donald Trump for “radically and recklessly” escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Lib Dem acting leader, Ed Davey, said: “Iran is governed by a brutal regime which has been openly hostile to the west. “Donald Trump has yet again radically and recklessly escalated tensions in an area where peacekeeping was already on a knife edge. “There is a real danger this will stoke further conflict, undermining peace and stability in the region. Given the severity of the crisis, the prime minister must make a statement about the UK’s position immediately. “The UK should not automatically follow whatever position the Trump administration takes, but work with a broader group of concerned states at the United Nations.”
Updated at 12:45 GMT
12:30 GMT The US assassination of Qassem Suleimani may have dealt a final blow to hopes of keeping the Iranian nuclear deal alive until the American elections next year, European diplomats fear. There is also concern that the Iraqi parliament will seek to expel the 5,000 US troops from Iraq with unpredictable consequences for the region, including the fight against Islamic State. These private concerns were voiced amid public European calls for all sides to de-escalate the crisis, appeals that are unlikely to be heeded in Tehran, which is intent on some form of reprisal. In a statement that neither condemned nor condoned the killing of Suleimani, the UK foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, said: “We have always recognised the aggressive threat posed by the Iranian Quds force led by Qassem Suleimani. Following his death, we urge all parties to de-escalate. Further conflict is in none of our interests.” France’s European minister, Amélie de Montchalin, also called for calm. Speaking on French radio, she said any military escalation was always dangerous. “At European level, we have to work in collective multilateral frameworks and prevent the powers, one against the other, from playing their game in an unpredictable manner,” she said. “Our role is not to stand on one side or the other, it is to speak with everyone.” She said the French president, Emmanuel Macron, would be consulting widely on Friday
Updated at 12:30 GMT
12:20 GMT Mike Pompeo has said the US remains committed to de-escalation with Iran in a series of tweets. The US secretary of state says he has spoken to the British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, and Germany’s minister of foreign affairs, Heiko Maas, about the US decision to kill Suleimani, who commanded Iran’s elite Quds force.
I spoke today with Chinese Politburo Member Yang Jiechi to discuss @realDonaldTrump's decision to eliminate Soleimani in response to imminent threats to American lives. I reiterated our commitment to de-escalation.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) January 3, 2020
Discussed with @DominicRaab the recent decision to take defensive action to eliminate Qassem Soleimani. Thankful that our allies recognize the continuing aggressive threats posed by the Iranian Quds Force. The U.S. remains committed to de-escalation.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) January 3, 2020
Spoke with @HeikoMaas about @realDonaldTrump's decision to take defensive action to eliminate Qassem Soleimani. Germany is also concerned over the Iranian regime’s continued military provocations. The U.S. remains committed to de-escalation.
— Secretary Pompeo (@SecPompeo) January 3, 2020
Updated at 12:26 GMT
12:12 GMT Here’s a report by the Guardian’s economics correspondent, Richard Partington, on what rising oil prices mean for the escalating crisis in the Middle East and the world economy.
Updated at 12:12 GMT
12:05 GMT Iraq’s military has condemned the killing of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi paramilitary leader who died alongside Qassem Suleiman, Iran’s top general. The Iraqi military said it was a clear breach of the US mandate in Iraq, according to a report by Reuters. “The Joint Operations Command mourns the hero martyr ... who was martyred last night in a cowardly and treacherous attack carried out by American aircraft near Baghdad international airport,” it said in a statement. “We affirm that what happened is a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty and a clear breach by the American forces of their mandate which is exclusively to fight Islamic State and provide advice and assistance to Iraqi security forces.”
Updated at 12:24 GMT
11:59 GMT The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has defended the US airstrike that killed Qassem Suleimani. In a statement, Netanyahu said: “Just as Israel has the right of self-defence, the United States has exactly the same right. “Qassem Suleimani is responsible for the death of American citizens and many other innocent people. He was planning more such attacks. “President Trump deserves all the credit for acting swiftly, forcefully and decisively.
Israel stands with the United States in its just struggle for peace, security and self-defence.”
Updated at 12:24 GMT
11:42 GMT Experts have warned that the strike on Iran’s top general puts the US and allies, including the UK, at risk. Ian Bond, foreign policy director at the Centre for European Reform, tweeted that the airstrike was a “big escalation” by Trump.
No doubt #Soleimani was v bad actor, w much blood on his hands. But killing non-state terrorists eg bin Laden or Baghdadi v different from killing senior official of internationally-recognised state. Big escalation by Trump, & a lawless step that increases risk to US & allies.
— Ian Bond (@CER_IanBond) January 3, 2020
Dr Jack Watling, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told the news agency PA Media that the attack was “very significant” because it was a “declared assassination” outside a declared armed conflict. But he said that Iran was not likely to want to provoke a war with the US. “The significance of this strike is that it is a declared assassination of a senior officer in another state with whom the US is not in a declared armed conflict and conducted on the territory of a third party,” he said. “That’s a very significant development in and of itself. Ultimately Iran does not want to provoke a full-scale conflict. I would expect there will be attacks on US forces, but they will be conducted with care.” Watling added if the UK was seen by Iran to be participating in US actions it could lead to the capture or arrest of British citizens in the region. “The Iranians do not draw a direct line between the UK and US. However, if the UK is perceived to be participating in US actions then they will directly target UK interests,” he said. He added: “The UK is not automatically the first target. Citizens in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon would certainly potentially be at risk. Dual nationalities in Iran will certainly be at risk of arrest under espionage charges.”
Updated at 11:53 GMT
11:20 GMT John Bolton said he hoped the assassination of Qassem Suleimani was “the first step to regime change in Tehran”. The former US national security adviser tweeted his congratulations to all involved in assassinating Iran’s top general, describing the strike as long in the making.
Congratulations to all involved in eliminating Qassem Soleimani. Long in the making, this was a decisive blow against Iran's malign Quds Force activities worldwide. Hope this is the first step to regime change in Tehran.
— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) January 3, 2020
Updated at 11:51 GMT
11:12 GMT The UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial killing has said the targeted killings of Qassem Suleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis violates international human rights law. In a Twitter thread, Agnès Callamard said the US would need to prove the individual targeted constituted an imminent threat to others. “An individual’s past involvement in ‘terrorist’ attacks is not sufficient to make his targeting for killing lawful,” she said. On the White House statement about the airstrike, Callamard said: “The statement fails to mention the other individuals killed alongside Suleimani. Collateral? Probably. Unlawful. Absolutely.”
#Iraq: The targeted killings of Qasem Soleiman and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis are most lokely unlawful and violate international human rights law: Outside the context of active hostilities, the use of drones or other means for targeted killing is almost never likely to be legal (1)
— Agnes Callamard (@AgnesCallamard) January 3, 2020
Updated at 11:15 GMT
Jeremy Corbyn criticises 'the US assassination' of Iran’s top general
Jeremy Corbyn, the current leader of the Labour party who is set to step down following a Conservative landslide at the last general election, has said “the US assassination” of the general “is an extremely serious and dangerous escalation of conflict in the Middle East with global significance”. In a statement, Corbyn notes: “The UK government should urge restraint on the part of both Iran and the US, and stand up to the belligerent actions and rhetoric coming from the United States.”
Updated at 11:00 GMT
10:54 GMT Here’s a roundup of reactions from Labour leadership hopefuls to a US airstrike in Baghdad killing Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s top general. Nick Robinson, BBC’s Radio 4’s Today programme host, described the event as “a very early test for those who want to be leader of the opposition”. Keir Starmer, the current frontrunner to win the Labour leadership, tweeted that the incident is “an extremely serious situation” and called for all sides to de-escalate tensions.
This is an extremely serious situation. There’s a clear danger of further violence and escalation in the Middle East. We need to engage, not isolate Iran. All sides need to de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflict. https://t.co/ro2bJpk7jl
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) January 3, 2020
The Labour MP Lisa Nandy, who is also considering a run to replace Jeremy Corbyn, described the airstrike as “a very dangerous moment”. She added: “Seventeen years after the catastrophic decision to go to war in Iraq, violence still rages every day. World leaders must stand up to Trump. The last thing we need is another all-out war.” Jess Phillips, the Labour MP who is expected to formally declare her bid to lead the Labour party, said: “Reckless foreign policy does not show strength. It’s not a game. The consequences of the escalating tensions between the US and Iran are not to be underestimated, not just once again on the civilians in the region but on the whole world.” Robinson asked Melanie Onn, former Labour MP who recently lost her seat but is supporting Phillips: “Should people like Jess Phillips take a sort of Corbyn stand, or should she be wary of those who criticise Mr Corbyn for seeming to back the wrong side in international conflict.” In response, Onn said: “I don’t think that anyone who is trying to emulate somebody else is the right person for the Labour party.”
Updated at 13:31 GMT
Oil prices jump after killing of Suleimani
Oil prices soared early on Friday morning after the US airstrike that killed the top Iranian commander, increasing tensions between the two powers. Oil prices rose over $2 a barrel, while gold and other safe-haven assets jumped on Friday, Reuters reported, adding “traders were clearly spooked” by Qassem Suleimani’s death. The news agency also reported that foreign oil companies were evacuating dozens of employees with US citizenship from Basra in Iraq, citing company sources.
Updated at 10:41 GMT
UK foreign secretary: 'we urge all parties to de-escalate'
The British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, has urged “all parties to de-escalate” after the US airstrike that killed the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani. In a written statement, Raab said: “We have always recognised the aggressive threat posed by the Iranian Quds force led by Qassem Suleimani. Following his death, we urge all parties to de-escalate. “Further conflict is in none of our interests.”
Updated at 10:43 GMT