Tesla will deliver fewer vehicles than the low end of its guidance for the year and its stock may suffer, according to Cowen.

The automaker is poised to deliver between 95,000 and 101,000 vehicles for its fourth quarter, Cowen said in a note to clients Monday. This would put deliveries for the year at roughly 356,000, below the 360,000 to 400,000 range the company has given as a guidance.

The new analyst projection comes as the first Tesla Model 3s built in Shanghai are being delivered. China is seen as a large growth opportunity for Tesla, and the U.S.-based electric car company is delivering vehicles from the new factory less than a year after breaking ground to build it.