Just one-quarter of the Lower 48 states will have snow on the ground.


Blue areas indicate snow cover on Christmas Eve in Lower 48 states. (NOAA)

Few dreams of a white Christmas will be realized over the Lower 48 in 2019. Unless you live in the far northern parts of the central United States, the mountains of the western United States or the interior Northeast, you’ll awaken to bare ground Christmas morning.

Unusually mild weather sprawled over most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation is to blame for the lack of snow.


Temperature difference from normal over Lower 48 on Christmas afternoon as predicted by the American GFS model.

Historically, snow coats the ground over about 38 percent of the contiguous United States on Christmas Eve. But this year, it’s 25.5 percent, the third-lowest on record since 2003 (2018 and 2003 had slightly less snow). The most extensive Christmas Eve snow cover occurred in 2009, when more than 58 percent of the nation was blanketed. Washington even witnessed a white Christmas that year, but it hasn’t since.

[Here are your chances of seeing a white Christmas]

The National Weather Service declares a white Christmas if at least an inch of snow covers the ground at 7 a.m. on Dec. 25.

This year, very few places will meet that criteria — unless they are in the mountains or in the very northern tier of the Lower 48.

Since Monday, snow has fallen in the mountains throughout the Southwest, thanks to a high-altitude disturbance swinging through, but this isn’t that unusual. It may seem odd that a half-foot of snow blanketed Flagstaff, Ariz., on Christmas Eve, but historical data show that the high-elevation city has a 56 percent chance of a white Christmas.

10 am, Tues. Dec. 24, 2019. Light snow is falling, just enough to make roads & footpaths icy. Yes, SLICK conditions on the South Rim! All roads open at this hour. Drive carefully and leave plenty of space between cars. Follow our weather forecast here: https://t.co/avry8atOsg pic.twitter.com/k1K939ba4B

— Grand Canyon NPS (@GrandCanyonNPS) December 24, 2019

East of the Rocky Mountains, the Christmas Day weather story is warmth. From Arkansas to Iowa, several record highs could be set, thanks to highs in the 60s to near-70s.


Forecast highs in the eastern U.S. on Christmas Day from the National Weather Service. Those circled are records for warmth. (WeatherBell.com)

Many areas between the Appalachians and the Rockies will record temperatures that are 10 to 25 degrees above normal.

If you’re seeking abnormally cold weather, you’ll have to head to Alaska, where many areas will endure highs near or below zero on Christmas Day.

[Alaska to plummet to minus-50 degrees but is still a ‘near lock’ to see its warmest year on record]

Whereas Anchorage has received no measurable snow this month, it is expecting two to three inches Tuesday night, which should extend its streak of white Christmases to 34 in a row.