Do your homework, kiddos. Thursday’s snowfall across the Denver metro area almost certainly won’t be significant enough to close schools.
But while it probably won’t wind up in the record books or shut down schools and businesses, the season’s first measurable snowfall for the Denver metro area could lead to some slick spots Thursday. It could also be a hit-or-miss type of snowfall, with some parts of the metro area seeing little to no accumulation while others end up with several inches.
The National Weather Service office in Boulder is calling for 2-3 inches of snow in the immediate Denver area on Thursday, based on their official forecast posted on Tuesday night. The foothills and the mountains — particularly north of Interstate 70 — could see more than 6 inches of snow by the time it ends Thursday night.
System bringing snow to the region Wed evening thru Thurs w/ frigid night time temps. Wed evening much colder w/ snow for high country. Overnight rain changing to snow on plains. Lower elevation locations near foothills & Palmer Divide will see higher accum. #cowx pic.twitter.com/7MqIjI7b3v
— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) October 8, 2019
A powerful cold front will blast through the Front Range late Wednesday night, dropping temperatures from a high near 80 on Wednesday down into the upper 20s by Thursday morning. Along the urban corridor, the snow is expected to begin during the pre-dawn hours Thursday, so roads may be slick by Thursday morning’s drive into work.
That said, snowfall amounts look mostly light before and during the Thursday morning commute. On top of that, Wednesday’s warmth — highs will be near 80 degrees — will likely keep the ground warm and reduce accumulations on area roadways, at least initially. While some areas, particularly in the foothills and along the Palmer Divide, will have snow-covered roads, Thursday morning’s commute should feature lighter snowfall and little to no accumulation on area roadways, though icy patches are still possible.
After the initial dusting of snow Thursday morning, however, there are a few factors in place that could complicate the forecast later in the day. The jet stream — the meandering ribbon of strong winds that plays a huge role in our weather — will move overhead, creating narrow bands of heavier snowfall. That may create some localized higher snowfall totals. These exact areas are typically hard to pinpoint in advance.
“Snow will be lighter during the morning hours, but could increase in intensity as the jet moves overhead and (conditions are) possible which can result in convective snow bands and localized heavier amounts,” the National Weather Service wrote in its Tuesday evening forecast discussion.
Temperatures will cool into the 20s, further increasing the possibility that snow could quickly accumulate under one of those heavier bands. While most areas will receive a short burst of heavier snowfall, some could see it for a few hours, and that’s where snow could pile closer to 4 or 5 inches.
While it’s unlikely that much snow will fall on the immediate Denver area, it’s a possibility due to the hyper-local nature of jet stream-induced snow bands. It’s more likely, however, that a short burst of snow in the middle of the day Thursday will produce a quick inch or two of snow, and that could hamper the drive home from work.
By Thursday night, any snow will gradually give way to few flurries — and the coldest night of the season. Temperatures will drop into the teens and perhaps close to 10 degrees on Thursday night and Friday morning. The National Weather Service is calling for a low of 13 degrees in Denver.
At the very least, it appears quite likely that Denver will receive its first measurable snowfall of the season on Thursday, over a week ahead of the city’s average first measurable snowfall date. It probably won’t be a huge snow event, but as always with Denver weather, you never know.