COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Gene Smith always blew off playoff talk in the past. He’d been on the College Football Playoff Selection Committee for two years, and now he brushed aside most attempts for insight on his experience.
Wednesday, The Lantern, the student newspaper at Ohio State, got him to spill the goods.
Smith served a two-year term on the committee when he was supposed to serve three. He quit after last season and was replaced by Iowa AD Gary Barta, as the five power conferences always have a current AD on the 13-member panel. Smith at the time said he wanted to focus on helping new coach Ryan Day adjust, but I knew getting off the committee because he was recused when the Buckeyes were discussed, and that worked against Ohio State, was part of the calculus as well.
Wednesday, here’s what Smith told The Lantern.
"I was also concerned about how the committee was applying the criteria,” Smith said. “And so I felt uncomfortable when I came back into the room after I had been recused, and Georgia was ranked ahead of us. They were a two-loss team, not a champion.”
Ohio State, as the 12-1 Big Ten champ with a 29-point loss at Purdue, finished No. 6 in the final playoff rankings last season. Most thought the Buckeyes were competing with 12-1 Big 12 champ Oklahoma for the final playoff spot at No. 4. But the Buckeyes also finished behind the No. 5 Bulldogs, who were 11-2 after losing in the SEC Championship Game to Alabama.
As I detailed in some of my mock playoff committee stories from earlier this season, we know what Smith did while that was discussed. He left the conference room and hung out and ate bacon just outside the doors, because committee members can’t discuss teams with whom they’re associated. So the entire debate over 4-5-6 went on without Smith. He returned to the room and wasn’t mad that the Buckeyes weren’t No. 4.
But he was mad that they were No. 6.
So why is he saying this now? Smith has done this a long time. When he’s working on behalf of the NCAA, he’s a good soldier. When he’s working with the NCAA on behalf of his school, he’s a facilitator. When it’s time to fight for the Buckeyes, he can be calculating.
I think he said that now because he’s preparing the committee just in case Ohio State loses to Michigan on Saturday.
In most scenarios, the Buckeyes could lose to Michigan and still make the four-team playoff. Right now, they join Clemson and LSU as the only undefeated teams. Currently ranked No. 1, the Buckeyes have been impressing the committee all year. If they wind up a one-loss Big Ten champ, with a loss to Michigan and a win over Minnesota or Wisconsin, they’d still be in strong position assuming everything else goes as expected: LSU and Clemson as undefeated conference champs, and Oklahoma and Utah as one-loss champs of the Big 12 and Pac-12.
LSU and Clemson would be in. Ohio State, Oklahoma and Utah would fight for two spots, and the Buckeyes would certainly take one.
But Smith is preparing for the worst-case scenario for the Buckeyes. That’s why he’s talking about this now. The words didn’t slip out of his mouth Saturday. He’s sending a pre-emptive message to his former committee colleagues.
Value championships.
Here’s the worst-case Smith is hedging against:
• How Ohio State has broken the College Football Playoff
Ohio State loses to Michigan. LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship. Utah and/or Oklahoma finish really strong as one-loss champs. And the one-loss champion Buckeyes suddenly teeter on the edge of becoming the fourth-straight Big Ten champ to miss the playoff.
Smith’s words Wednesday were fighting the unlikely, but possible, battle of one-loss champion Ohio State vs. one-loss non-champ LSU for a playoff spot.
Imagine: Clemson wins out and takes a spot. One-loss Georgia beats LSU and takes a spot as the SEC champ. Utah and/or Oklahoma roar to the finish and take a spot as a one-loss champ. And if the Buckeyes didn’t look great in their Michigan loss, or struggled in their Big Ten title win, they’d suddenly be under the microscope. LSU would have those wins over Alabama and Florida and Auburn, even if the Tigers didn’t have a conference crown. Ohio State would have wins over Penn State, Wisconsin and in the Big Ten title gmae ... but are those as good as LSU’s wins?
Smith was saying this -- he quit because SEC non-champ Georgia was ranked ahead of one-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State last year. What he didn’t say was that ranking an SEC non-champ over one-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State this year would be just as egregious.
But that’s what he meant.
If Ohio State wins out, they’re in. If Ohio State loses to Michigan and wins the Big Ten, but LSU beats Georgia, the Buckeyes are obviously in.
If Ohio State loses to Michigan, but wins the Big Ten, the Buckeyes are probably in no matter what. I think in Smith’s worst-case scenario, the final four would be Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and LSU, with both the Pac-12 and Big 12 champs left out.
But Smith didn’t wait to make his point. He was on the committee when the Buckeyes were left out of the playoff as the Big Ten champs in 2017 and 2018 and he was recused and couldn’t fight for them. He got off the committee so he could fight for them. So in 2019, he’s already fighting. Just in case.
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