The Conservatives have established a double-digit lead in many of the most recent opinion polls. It is a commanding position, which would usually lead to pundits predicting a big majority for Boris Johnson’s party. So why is this election still being called one of the most unpredictable in years? Partly it is the Brexit issue, which has upended conventional wisdom on political affiliations, but there is also a widespread mistrust of opinion polls after most of them failed to accurately predict recent election results.
Joining Anushka Asthana is Prospect’s editor and podcast presenter Tom Clark, who has been following the polling industry for many years, including during his time at the Guardian, where he wrote a fateful front-page story in 2015 anticipating a hung parliament based on the final poll of the campaign. Tom is also chairing a discussion in Westminster tomorrow on the question of the polls and trust.
Also today: Emma Graham-Harrison in Hong Kong on the local elections that have returned pro-democracy candidates.
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